If no important economic events are expected at the beginning of the week, Wednesday and Thursday will be oversaturated with important news. On Wednesday, interest rate decisions are expected from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the Bank of Canada (BoC). No changes are expected, but there could be surprises from the BoC in the form of hints of a rate cut in June. On Wednesday, the US will release consumer inflation data for March. Economists expect core inflation to slow to 3.7% year-on-year from 3.8% in the previous month. The strong employment data and slow inflation growth over the past few months have reinforced calls by top Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, to exercise “patience” as they decide when to cut rates.
Monday, April 08
On Monday, investors’ attention will be focused on German trade balance data as well as Swiss labor market data. The Swiss unemployment rate is expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.6% year-on-year, while Germany’s trade surplus is expected to decline.
Main events of the day:
- Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
- German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 18:15 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, April 09
Tuesday will be a quiet day in terms of volatility as no important events are expected on this day.
Main events of the day:
- New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
- Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, April 10
Wednesday will bring various statistics for many countries. The US inflation data (CPI) is the most important release for investors. Analysts expect core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) to fall from 3.8 to 3.6% year-on-year. However, wide inflation could rise from 3.2% y/y to 3.4% y/y. Investors should also focus on the BoC’s and RBNZ’s monetary policy meetings. The Bank of Canada is expected to leave rates unchanged but may hint at a rate cut in June. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has no plans to cut rates until the fall, even though the country has fallen into a technical recession. Also, traders should not miss the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which significantly impact the US dollar. The minutes of the Fed meeting will be scrutinized for officials’ views on the state of the financial system and their plans for monetary policy. Last week, FOMC officials unexpectedly discussed holding rates longer, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in June.
Main events of the day:
- Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).
Thursday, April 11
The most important Thursday release for investors will be the US factory inflation (PPI) data, which is considered a precursor to consumer inflation. Producer inflationary pressures are expected to ease, which could pressure the US dollar. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting will also be held on Thursday. The ECB is expected to keep rates on hold on this expectation, but markets believe there is almost a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in June, so President Christine Lagarde’s comments will be closely watched for a “green light”. Investors should also pay attention to China’s inflation data. This data has a strong impact on Asian indices as well as the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar.
Main events of the day:
- China Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- China Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, April 12
Friday, we will see a number of data releases from the UK, and the main report will be the GDP data. The economy is expected to show no growth, and there is a high probability that the technical recession scenario will continue. Also, important releases on Friday will be German and Indian inflation data. In both countries, inflationary pressures are expected to decrease.
Main events of the day:
- China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Indian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
