Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2024.09.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.1131
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.1177
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.41 %

The US dollar came under pressure after the Chinese yuan rose to a 16-month high against the dollar amid stimulus from the People’s Bank of China. In addition, a rally in stock markets on Thursday limited liquidity demand for the dollar. The euro received support from the weakening dollar. In addition, the unexpected growth of the GfK consumer confidence index in Germany for October was favorable for the euro.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.1122, 1.1105, 1.1068
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.1180, 1.1275

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. Yesterday, at the end of the trading day, the price reached the resistance level of 1.1180, where sellers reacted. At the same time, sellers managed to form an intermediate level for selling at 1.1172. This indicates the sellers’ desire to reduce the price to 1.1122. A price consolidation above 1.1189 will open the way for the price to the week’s high.

Alternatif senaryo:

 if the price breaks the support level of 1.1122 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.3315
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.3414
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.74 %

The situation has not changed in terms of fundamentals. Last week, the Fed made a massive 50 bps rate cut and signaled further rate cuts this year and next, which led to a weaker US dollar and benefited sterling, which rose to its highest since April 2022. The interest rate differential is now in favor of the British currency.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.3371, 1.3300, 1.3274, 1.3241, 1.3188, 1.3153, 1.3115
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.3395, 1.3427, 1.3455

From the technical analysis point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British pound tested liquidity above 1.3427 yesterday, which was followed by the sellers’ reaction. The price corrected again to the moving averages, while sellers managed to form an intermediate level of 1.3395, which, with a proper price reaction, can be used to open sales. A support level of 1.3371 should be considered when buying. A consolidation below this level may provoke a sell-off to 1.3300.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.3242 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 144.73
• Öncekini Kapat: 144.81
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.06 %

The Japanese yen slipped to 145 per dollar on Friday, falling to a more than three-week low, as investors digested the Tokyo Inflation Report, a leading indicator of nationwide price trends. The data showed Tokyo’s core inflation rate slowed to 2% in September from 2.4% in August, matching forecasts and confirming the Bank of Japan’s cautious approach to raising rates. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also recently said that they have time to assess developments in the market and economy before adjusting monetary policy, suggesting that the BoJ is in no hurry to raise rates further.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 145.28, 144.12, 142.91, 142.22, 141.13, 140.43, 137.26
• Direnç seviyeleri: 146.31, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed temporarily to an uptrend. Yesterday, buyers broke the upper boundary of the flat, and currently, the price has reached the resistance level of 146.31. Here, we can consider sell trades, but with confirmation on intraday time frames. We can consider 145.28 or 144.12 for buying, but also with confirmation.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support at 144.12, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 2657
• Öncekini Kapat: 2672
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.56 %

Gold remained near the $2,670 per ounce mark on Friday, trading at record highs, as markets awaited the release of the much-anticipated US PCE report for further guidance on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. On a year-on-year basis, the index is expected to. Monthly, it is expected to rise by 0.2%. The inflation index remains above the US Federal Reserve’s 2% target. If the data comes out worse than expected, the dollar index may get temporary support, which will have a negative impact on precious metals.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 2650, 2637, 2620, 2604, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Direnç seviyeleri: 2675, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday the price reached the psychological mark of 2675, where sellers took the initiative. There is bearish pressure inside the day and considering MACD divergence the price may go lower, down to 2649. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breakdown the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.