Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2024.10.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.0781
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.0827
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.42 %

The European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates by only 25 bps instead of 50 bps in December. Preliminary PMI data for October showed that private sector business activity remains in contractionary territory, although there were some positive signals from Germany. Traders expect the ECB to cut rates to 2% mid-2025 from 3.25%.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.0806, 1.0780
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.0836, 1.0868, 1.0894, 1.0951, 1.0979, 1.1013

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Euro is correcting. The price seeks to test the liquidity above 1.0836, which can be considered for selling provided the seller’s initiative. For buying, 1.0806 is worth considering, but also with confirmation. A price move above 1.0836 will open the price path to 1.0868.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0871 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.2917
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.2975
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.45 %

The British pound rose to $1.3, rebounding from a two-month low following reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves may allow more borrowing in the upcoming budget, which could delay the Bank of England rate cut. Market expectations of a November rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) fell to 86% from 100%. Flash PMI data showed slower-than-expected growth in UK manufacturing and services in October.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.2948, 1.2932, 1.2907
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.2988, 1.3011, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171, 1.3290

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, the price bounced sharply from the support level of 1.2907 and reached the resistance level of 1.2948, where sellers took the initiative. The price declined to the support level at 1.2948, where the buyers stepped in and prevented the price from going lower. Today, intraday, we can consider buying from the moving average lines or after a liquidity test below 1.2948. The profit target is 1.3012.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3032 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 152.68
• Öncekini Kapat: 151.82
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.57 %

The Japanese yen is at its weakest level in almost three months amid political uncertainty ahead of the country’s general election this weekend. Polls showed that the coalition government could lose its majority in parliament, clouding the trajectory of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, investors digested data that Japan’s private sector activity contracted in October for the first time in four months as both the manufacturing and service sectors fell.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 151.64, 151.16, 152.00, 150.50, 149.63, 148.90, 148.12
• Direnç seviyeleri: 152.52, 153.40

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price seeks to test liquidity above 153.40. Intraday, any pullback to the moving lines can be used to buy. Also, 151.64 or 151.16 should be considered for buying, provided there is a proper reaction. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breakdown the support level of 148.15, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 2715
• Öncekini Kapat: 2736
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.77 %

Gold rose above $ 2730 per ounce on Thursday as part of a likely technical rebound after retreating from record highs, dropping more than 1% in the previous session. The pullback was triggered by a stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a cautious approach to monetary easing. However, gold continued to be supported by its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In addition, uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election and monetary policy easing by major central banks provided additional support.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 2725, 2708, 2704, 2714, 2704, 2667, 2661, 2640, 2605, 2584, 2574
• Direnç seviyeleri: 2738, 2752

From the technical analysis point of view, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold is starting to form a broadly volatile flat. The level of 2725 acts as support and 2738 as resistance. However, intraday pressure is behind the sellers. A breakdown of 2725 will open the price way to 2707. But until that happens, the level of 2725 can be used for buying with a target up to the upper boundary of the flat.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breakdown the support level of 2640, the downtrend will likely resume.