Ana Döviz Çiftlerine Analitik Bakış 2024.11.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.0564
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.0530
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.32 %

The European Central Bank (ECB) is signaling that it is increasingly considering rate cuts, according to reports of its October meeting. While inflation is expected to fall, mainly due to falling energy prices, officials remain cautious about domestic inflationary pressures, especially strong wage growth and sluggish labor productivity. Despite the more optimistic inflation outlook, the ECB emphasized the importance of gathering more data before making policy changes. Policymakers emphasized that any decision to cut the rate would depend on the economic outlook and further evidence of easing inflationary pressures.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.0518, 1.0483
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.0593, 1.0664, 1.0714, 1.0766, 1.0795, 1.0857

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, on volume spike, the price bounced from the support level of 1.0518, confirming the buyers’ initiative. Considering the MACD divergence, correction should be expected. Inside the day, we can look for buying up to the resistance level of 1.0593. A breakout of 1.0593 will open the price way to 1.0654. However, if sellers show a reaction at 1.0593, the price will likely resume its downward momentum.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0654 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 1.2704
• Öncekini Kapat: 1.2665
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.31 %

The UK GDP grew by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024, the smallest in the last three quarters, below the 0.5% in the second quarter and estimates of 0.2%. The services sector rose by 0.1%, construction rose by 0.8%, while the manufacturing sector contracted by 0.2%. UK industrial production in September 2024 fell by 0.5% month-on-month, defying market expectations for a 0.1% increase and following a 0.5% rise in the previous month. Overall, negative data for the British currency.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 1.2662
• Direnç seviyeleri: 1.2727, 1.2766, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. The price tested the liquidity below the support level of 1.2662, where the buyers took the initiative. Considering the MACD divergence, we should expect a corrective upward movement today. Buying can be considered from a 1.2662 level with a target of 1.2726. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2769 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 155.40
• Öncekini Kapat: 156.26
• Son güne göre % değişim: +0.55 %

The Japanese yen weakened to 156 per dollar on Friday, trading at its lowest level in nearly four months, as investors reacted to the latest GDP data. Japan’s economy grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of 2024, slower than the second quarter but still marking the second consecutive quarter of growth. On an annualized basis, GDP grew by 0.9% in the third quarter, a significant slowdown from the 2.2% growth in the second quarter. Uncertainty over BoJ policy normalization remains as mixed economic data and the recent political shake-up cloud the outlook.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 155.21, 155.34, 154.29, 153.71, 153.30, 153.03, 152.65, 151.45
• Direnç seviyeleri: 156.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen, after the test of liquidity above 156.32 on the surge of volume, sharply returned below the level, confirming the sellers’ initiative. It is too late to sell here. Currently, the price seeks to distribute the grabbed liquidity, and the most suitable levels for this are 155.51 and 155.34. From the latter one, we can look for buy trades, provided the buyers react.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks down the support level of 154.32, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Döviz çiftinin teknik göstergeleri:

• Öncekini Aç: 2572
• Öncekini Kapat: 2565
• Son güne göre % değişim: -0.27 %

Precious metals prices declined moderately on Thursday, with gold and silver falling to 2-month lows. The Dollar Index rally on Thursday to a 1-year high helped liquidate long positions in precious metals. In addition, US economic news on Thursday showed that weekly jobless claims fell to a 5-month low, and October Producer Prices rose more than expected, which was hawkish for Fed policy and negative for precious metals.

İşlem önerileri

• Destek seviyeleri: 2554, 2471
• Direnç seviyeleri: 2586, 2627, 2675, 2700, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. Gold tested liquidity below 2554 where buyers took the initiative. Given the MACD divergence, we should expect a technical bounce upwards. Intraday buying from 2552 with a target of 2586 can be considered. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternatif senaryo:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2704, the uptrend will likely resume.