A busy economic calendar is expected this week. Firstly, traders should attend the meetings of the US, UK, Japan, and China central banks. The Bank of England (BoE), the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) are expected to leave key rates unchanged, while the FOMC is expected to cut rates by 0.25%. Important inflation reports will also be released this week in the United Kingdom, Eurozone, Canada, and Japan. Other key data in the US include retail sales, PCE prices, personal income, and spending, which is the final estimate of GDP growth. China will also release data on industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment. In addition, interest rate decisions are expected in Mexico, the Philippines, Sweden, Norway, Indonesia, and Thailand.
Pazartesi, December 16
On Monday, investors will focus on business activity data from key economies’ manufacturing and service sectors. These data reflect the health of the economy. The growth of indicators is usually positive for the national currency. Also expected on Monday are a number of economic data from China, which affect Asian indices, as well as currencies whose countries depend on the Chinese economy — AUD and NZD.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:35 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- Canada BOC Gov Macklem Speaks at 22:20 (GMT+2).
Salı, December 17
On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to 2 key events. The first is the UK labor market data. Average wages are expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.7% YoY, which may boost the British currency as it will postpone the interest rate cut by the Bank of England. The second event is the Canadian inflation data. Further decline in inflationary pressures is expected, which may negatively affect the CAD. Traders may also analyze the US retail sales report. It is expected to grow by 0.6%, which may support the US dollar.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Germany Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2).
Çarşamba, December 18
Wednesday’s main event will be the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting. The FOMC is expected to cut the rate by 0.25%. This scenario has already been priced, so traders should focus on Powell’s press conference, where traders can find clues about further FOMC steps. Any hints of a rate cut next year may pressure the USD. In the UK, traders’ attention will be drawn to inflation data. A slight decline in core inflation is expected, while overall inflation is expected to be unchanged. Surprise in the direction of a significant inflation decline will negatively impact the British currency. Also, on Wednesday, investors will keep an eye on the final Eurozone inflation data, which is expected to rise from 2% to 2.3% year-on-year, which could boost the euro. As for the central bank meetings in Indonesia and Thailand, no rate changes are expected here.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- Thailand BoT Interest Rate Decision at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Indonesian BI Interest Rate Decision at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2);
- New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Perşembe, December 19
Thursday will be a busy day for economic events. At the Asian session, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold a monetary policy meeting. With a probability of 84%, the policymakers will leave the rate at 0.25%. However, any hints of a rate hike at the January meeting may support the Japanese currency. Further, we await the meetings between the Swedish and Norwegian central banks in Europe. Swedish Riksbank is expected to cut the rate by 0.5% to 2.25%, while Norges Bank is expected to keep the rate at 4.5%. The Bank of England will hold a regular meeting in the UK on Thursday. It is expected to be unchanged with a more hawkish bias for next year, which will be positive for the British currency in the medium term. Also, on Thursday, the Q3 US GDP data will be released. The economy is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year and 2.5% quarter-on-quarter. This is positive for the USD, but it may pressure the US currency if the data doesn’t meet the expectations. Mexico’s central bank will hold a meeting near the end of the day. Banxico is expected to cut the rate by 0.25% to 10.00%.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- Japan BoJ Press Conference at 06:30 (GMT+2);
- German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Sweden Riksbank Rate Decision (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- Norway Norges Bank Rate Decision (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
- UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2);
- US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- Mexico Banxico Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- New Zealand Trade Balance (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Cuma, December 20
The most important Friday release is the US PCE Price Index, on the Fed’s list of inflation indicators for regulating monetary policy. Economists expect the PCE price index to rise from 2.3% to 2.5% annually. This will be a hawkish report for the US Fed policy, which is positive for the USD. In the Asian session, traders will focus on inflation data in Japan and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) meeting. Inflation in Japan is expected to remain at 2.3%. If it matches or exceeds the forecast, it will increase the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in January, which is positive for the Yen. In China, the rate is expected to be unchanged. According to experts, Chinese politicians will actively reduce rates and stimulate the economy next year.
Günün ana etkinlikleri:
- Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2);
- UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
Bu makale kişisel bir görüşü yansıtmaktadır ve yatırım tavsiyesi ve/veya teklifi ve/veya finansal işlemlerin gerçekleştirilmesi için ısrarlı bir talep ve/veya bir garanti ve/veya gelecekteki olaylara ilişkin bir tahmin olarak yorumlanmamalıdır.
