The US economy is likely headed for a soft landing. Oil prices are falling due to OPEC production increase

The stock also found support on Friday thanks to favorable reports on the PCE core price Index and US personal spending for July. The reports suggest that the Fed has so far been able to contain price pressures without causing too much pain for consumers, raising the prospect of a soft landing. The Fed-friendly PCE report also reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at this meeting at 31%.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $73 a barrel on Monday, extending a decline of more than 3% from the previous session, as the market was impacted by OPEC’s plan to increase production next quarter. Starting in October, the eight OPEC+ members will increase production by 180,000 bpd, partially reversing a recent 2.2 million bpd cut and maintaining other cuts through the end of 2025. Demand concerns also intensified after factory activity in China fell to a six-month low in August, adding to fears that the Chinese economy will miss growth targets.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.86%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.58% over 5 trading days, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 0.85%. The Hang Seng retreated from the 1 month high reached last week as better-than-expected Caixin manufacturing PMI data for August failed to turn sentiment around after the official gauge of factory activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month. In addition, some traders tried to lock in profits after retail sales in the city fell in July, marking the sixth straight year-on-year decline.

Australia’s manufacturing sector continued to decline in August as high borrowing costs and weak demand had a negative impact on new orders. On the monetary policy front, markets are eagerly awaiting the latest remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock this week. She recently said that despite signs of weakening inflation, it is “premature” to consider cutting rates. Minutes from the last RBA meeting also showed that policy may remain restrictive for an extended period.

USD index 101.75 +0.06 (+0.05%)