The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.09.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1115
• Prev. Close: 1.1179
• % chg. over the last day: +0.58 %

The euro rose moderately on Tuesday thanks to the weakening dollar. In addition, hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Müller boosted the euro when he said that ECB policymakers may not have enough data to decide on interest rates in October. Negatively for the euro was Tuesday’s news that the IFO Business Confidence Index for September in Germany fell more than expected to an 8-month low. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at 63% for the October 17 meeting and 100% for a 25bp rate cut at the December 12 meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1183, 1.1147, 1.1122, 1.1087, 1.1068
• Resistance levels: 1.1195, 1.1275

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. Yesterday, the euro rose to the resistance level of 1.1195. The reaction of sellers is weak, and the volume is low, indicating that the price is not getting enough resistance. Under such market conditions, we should expect a continuation of the upward trend. For buying, we should consider the support level of 1.1183. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1122 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3347
• Prev. Close: 1.3413
• % chg. over the last day: +0.49 %

Positive economic data on retail sales and business activity pushed the British pound to multi-month highs. This week, no more important UK news is expected, so the US dollar will provide the main dynamics in GBP/USD pricing. Traders expect the Bank of England to cut rates by 42 bps by the end of the year, while the US Fed will cut rates by at least 50 bps.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3367, 1.3300, 1.3274, 1.3241, 1.3188, 1.3153, 1.3115
• Resistance levels: 1.3455

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British pound is aiming at the resistance level of 1.3455. Today, at the Asian session, the price corrected a bit on the background of some fixation. This is also confirmed by the divergence on MACD. The support level of 1.3367 should be considered for buying. It is possible to sell intraday, but only with short targets, as these will be positions against the main bias.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.3242 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 143.48
• Prev. Close: 143.25
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16 %

Japan’s economic news on Tuesday was mixed for the yen. Jibun Bank’s Japan Manufacturing PMI for September fell by 0.2 to 49.6. However, the Services PMI for September rose by 0.2 to 53.9, the fastest reading in 5 months. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Tuesday that they have time to assess market and economic developments before adjusting monetary policy, suggesting that the BoJ is in no rush to raise rates further. Swaps estimate the odds of a 10bp BoJ rate hike at 3% at the October 30–31 meeting and 7% for a 10bp hike at the December 18–19 meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 143.27, 142.83, 142.19, 141.13, 140.43, 137.26
• Resistance levels: 144.42, 146.30, 147.17, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed temporarily to an uptrend. Currently, the price is trading in the corridor between 143.27 and 144.42. Yesterday, the sellers reacted to the resistance level, and the price corrected to the lower boundary, where the buyers came back into play. A breakdown of 143.27 will open the way for the price to 142.65. Intraday today, it is worth considering buying with a target to the upper boundary of the corridor.

 

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks and consolidates below the support at 141.74, the downtrend will likely resume.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support at 141.74, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2626
• Prev. Close: 2657
• % chg. over the last day: +1.18 %

Gold rose above $2,660 per ounce on Wednesday, setting another record high, as expectations of further monetary easing and heightened geopolitical tensions boosted the precious metal’s appeal. Data released on Tuesday pointed to a larger-than-expected drop in US consumer confidence, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance and coinciding with previous signals from policymakers of another interest rate cut. Markets now look forward to additional economic data this week for further guidance, including reports on the PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2650, 2640, 2623, 2604, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Resistance levels: 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The sellers showed a reaction from the 2670 level. This is not a reversal yet, but it is buying fixations that provoke technical corrections. For buying, we should consider support levels 2650 or 2639. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.