The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.10.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0938
• Prev. Close: 1.0924
• % chg. over the last day: % chg. over the last day: -0.13 %

The dollar found support on Thursday on a stronger-than-expected US September CPI report, which is hawkish for Fed policy. The dollar’s strength had a negative impact on the euro. In addition, expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25 bps at next Thursday’s meeting are weighing on the euro. Euro losses were contained on Eurozone economic news, which showed that German retail sales in August rose the most in 5 months.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0908, 1.0884
• Resistance levels: 1.0950, 1.0979, 1.1013, 1.1036, 1.1079, 1.1136, 1.1163

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The price has reached the support level of 1.0908, where buyers show initiative. The latest surge in volumes and the price reaction to these volumes indicates the presence of large purchases. Given the large MACD divergence on several time frames simultaneously, it is worth looking inside to buy with a target up to 1.0979. There are no optimal entry points for selling right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.1038 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3066
• Prev. Close: 1.3057
• % chg. over the last day: -0.07 %

The British pound fell below $1.30, its lowest in a month, as the outlook for a less lenient Federal Reserve intensified. Today, the UK will release a batch of economic data, the main report being the monthly GDP data. Modest growth is expected, but amid the lack of macro statistics from the UK over the past two weeks, this could be enough to give the British currency a boost.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3035, 1.3013
• Resistance levels: 1.3105, 1.3175, 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, the price reached the support level of 1.3035, where the buyers entered the game. The latest volume spike confirms this. Considering MACD divergence, there is a high probability of corrective movement. Buying should be sought from the support level of 1.3035 or 1.3013. The first profit target is 1.3105. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3175 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 149.24
• Prev. Close: 148.56
• % chg. over the last day: -0.46 %

Japan’s Producer Prices rose more than expected in September, marking the 43rd consecutive month of rising producer inflation. Meanwhile, credit activity in the country slowed for the second consecutive month in September and was the lowest in nearly a year. In the medium term, investors stopped buying the yen as new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa advocated caution ahead of further rate hikes.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 148.28, 148.12, 147.50, 146.90, 146.02, 144.20, 143.53, 142.22
• Resistance levels: 149.97, 149.37, 151.26

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, sellers finally reacted to the resistance zone above 149.37. The price started to correct and broke the first buy level, which indicates the sellers’ pressure intraday. Currently, the price forms a flat corridor in the 148.28-148.97 range. Buying should be sought from the 148.12–148.28 zone, subject to buyers’ reaction. Price consolidation below 148.12 will open the way to 147.50. Selling should be considered from 148.97, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 146.02, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2609
• Prev. Close: 2629
• % chg. over the last day: +0.77 %

Fed funds futures prices indicated that investors are betting that the Fed will make two more 25 bps rate cuts this year and continue the rate cut cycle next year. Lower rates support gold as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets in bullion.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2623, 2605, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Resistance levels: 2647, 2658, 2669, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, gold reached the support level of 2605, where buyers took a sharp initiative. The price rose impulsively and broke the nearest resistance zones. The intraday buying pressure remains, but the price has deviated strongly from the moving average lines. Short sales against the trend should be considered from 2647 or 2658. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.