The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.10.14

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0925
• Prev. Close: 1.0932
• % chg. over the last day: +0.06 %

Signs of slowing economic growth and weakening price pressures have reinforced the need for faster rate cuts to support the Eurozone economy. The ECB is expected to cut the deposit rate by 25 bps at its meeting on Thursday, following similar moves in September and June. Traders are betting that the Central Bank will continue to cut rates by a quarter point at each meeting through March. This could put pressure on the euro in the medium term, especially if the US Federal Reserve cuts rates more slowly.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0908, 1.0884
• Resistance levels: 1.0952, 1.0979, 1.1013, 1.1036, 1.1079, 1.1136, 1.1163

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Last week the price reached the support level of 1.0908, where the buyers showed initiative. Then the price reached the resistance level of 1.0952, where the growth stopped. Today is a bank holiday in the United States, so we should expect a low-volatility flat movement. For buying we should consider 1.0908 or 1.0884 levels. For selling — 1.0952 and 1.0979.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.1038 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3047
• Prev. Close: 1.3065
• % chg. over the last day: +0.14 %

The British pound fell below $1.30, its lowest in a month, as the outlook for a less lenient Federal Reserve intensified. Today, the UK will release a batch of economic data, the main report being the monthly GDP data. Modest growth is expected, but amid the lack of macro statistics from the UK over the past two weeks, this could be enough to give the British currency a boost.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3035, 1.3013
• Resistance levels: 1.3105, 1.3175, 1.3290, 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation has not changed much. Last week, the price reached the support level of 1.3035, where the buyers entered the game. The latest volume spike confirms this. Considering the MACD divergence, there is a high probability of corrective movement. Buying should be sought from the support level of 1.3035 or 1.3013. The first profit target is 1.3105. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3175 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 148.53
• Prev. Close: 149.14
• % chg. over the last day: +0.41 %

In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said earlier this month that current economic conditions may not justify an additional rate hike. However, other senior Japanese officials have since softened the PM’s comments, with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi stating that Ishiba did not make any specific request to Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda during their meeting. On the other hand, easing inflationary pressures in Japan are pushing back the BoJ’s plans to raise the rate further.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 148.91, 148.28, 148.12, 147.50, 146.90, 146.02, 144.20, 143.53
• Resistance levels: 149.37, 151.03

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price has pressed against the resistance zone above 149.37, with buyers forming another support level at 148.91. Given that today is a bank holiday in the US and Japan, volatility on the currency pair will be extremely low, so it is best to refrain from positions.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 146.02, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2629
• Prev. Close: 2656
• % chg. over the last day: +1.03 %

Gold climbed above $2,650 per ounce on Friday, extending gains from the previous session as traders continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy direction following mixed economic data. Overall US inflation slowed less than expected in September, while core inflation rose more than prognosis, halting recent progress in easing price pressures. This has reinforced the view that the Fed will reduce borrowing costs more slowly than previously thought. There is now an 86% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate in November.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2646, 2623, 2605, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Resistance levels: 2658, 2669, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. On Friday, gold reached the resistance level of 2658, where sellers showed moderate initiative. In turn, buyers formed the support level of 2646. Buyer pressure intraday remains, but the price has deviated strongly from the moving average lines. Short sales against the trend should be considered from 2669. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.