The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.11.05

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0876
• Prev. Close: 1.0878
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02 %

Today, the US Presidential election will be held in the United States. The policies of the new US president will have far-reaching implications for monetary policy, geopolitics, and global trade. Analysts see the recent rise in Treasury bond yields and the dollar as anticipation of Trump’s victory. However, polls suggest a tiny lead, meaning Harris’s victory could trigger violent trade reversals. Therefore, Trump’s victory will likely support the US dollar, which will put pressure on other currencies, including the euro. Harris’s victory, on the contrary, may lead to a further decline in the US dollar, which will be taken advantage of by the euro.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0874, 1.0842, 1.0811, 1.0787
• Resistance levels: 1.0908, 1.0917, 1.0960, 1.1013

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to an upward trend. Yesterday, the price tested the liquidity above 1.0908, where sellers took the initiative. Currently, the price has corrected to the support level of 1.0874, but the reaction of buyers is weak, which increases the probability of a liquidity test below. Next, price action needs to be evaluated. False breakdown plus the price return above 1.0874 will provoke a sharp growth of quotes. If the downside breakout is true, the euro may be under bearish pressure.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0832 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2968
• Prev. Close: 1.2957
• % chg. over the last day: -0.08 %

The UK Retail Sales in October 2024 rose by just 0.3% on a comparable basis, slowing sharply from the 1.7% growth recorded in September. The lower reading reflects consumer caution ahead of Black Friday promotions. October growth also fell well short of the 1.4% increase predicted by analysts. Negative data for the British currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2950, 1.2917, 1.2891
• Resistance levels: 1.2999, 1.2987, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171

From the technical analysis point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish but close to change. Yesterday, the price failed to break through the resistance level of 1.2999 and corrected to 1.2950, where after a false breakdown, the buyers took the initiative. This is a bullish signal, so today, intraday, we can look for buying. Selling can be considered if the price consolidates below 1.2950.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2999 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 152.31
• Prev. Close: 152.12
• % chg. over the last day: -0.12 %

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen declined to 152.3 per dollar, giving up some of its gains from the previous session amid caution ahead of the US presidential election. Investors are also preparing for the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week, where a more cautious 25 basis point rate cut is expected. On the domestic front, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% last week. Markets speculate that the BoJ could raise rates to 0.5% as early as January, although yen fluctuations and inflation data will be the deciding factors influencing this decision.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 151.65, 151.16, 152.00, 150.50, 149.63
• Resistance levels: 152.56, 153.06, 153.58, 154.86

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish but close to a shift. The Japanese yen reached the level of 151.65 yesterday, but buyers managed to defend their positions. Currently, the price is aiming to test liquidity above 152.56. If sellers react here, it will open selling opportunities. A trend line breakout will open the way for the price to 153.06.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 151.64, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2737
• Prev. Close: 2736
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04 %

Gold tends to strengthen in times of uncertainty and political change as it acts as a protective asset. If Harris’s election leads to stock market volatility or a weaker dollar, gold could continue to rise. Trump’s presidency could lead to higher inflation due to his intention to significantly increase trade tariffs. This could encourage investors to use gold as a hedge against long-term inflation risks. Only a rise in the stock market or a sharp rise in the Dollar Index can put pressure on gold.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2724, 2708, 2704, 2714, 2704, 2667
• Resistance levels: 2739, 2750, 2761, 2771, 2790, 2800

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The price of gold reached the level of priority shift 2724, but the buyers took the initiative. The price is squeezed into a triangle ahead of the US elections, increasing the probability of a sharp impulse. For this, buyers need to break the intermediate resistance level of 2739. A breakout of this level will open the price to 2750. If the price fails to consolidate above the level, it could lead to a strong sell-off.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2724, the downtrend will likely resume.