The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.11.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0877
• Prev. Close: 1.0928
• % chg. over the last day: +0.47 %

The euro sharply fell 1.6% to $1.075 on Wednesday, hitting a four-month low, as the dollar rallied after early indications that Trump is likely to win the US presidential election, with the outcome hinging on key swing states. The dollar has strengthened in recent weeks on the back of so-called “Trump deals” as his economic policies, seen as inflationary, have contributed to market expectations of higher inflation and increased government spending.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0716, 1.0678
• Resistance levels: 1.0780, 1.0857

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to a downtrend. The sharp strengthening of the US dollar has led to the fact that the price of EUR/USD is simply falling downward by a stone. In such a sell-off, catching a market reversal (“catching the knife”) is not recommended, as it can lead to big losses. Support levels where we can expect the price to stop are 1.0716 and 1.0678. Selling is also irrelevant now, as the price has greatly deviated from the moving line.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0933 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2951
• Prev. Close: 1.3041
• % chg. over the last day: +0.69 %

The Bank of England monetary policy meeting will be held tomorrow. Economists predict a 0.25% rate cut. There is currently a 91% chance of a quarter-point rate cut, but fewer cuts are expected next year compared to expectations before last week’s Budget. This is a bearish factor for the British currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2848, 1.2733, 1.2642
• Resistance levels: 1.2919, 1.2950, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. The price is falling downward due to the strengthening of the US dollar. Stopping the fall can be expected at the support levels of 1.2848 or 1.2733, but buying is not recommended. There are also no optimal entry points for selling right now. It is better to refrain from trading now to reduce losses.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3023 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 152.10
• Prev. Close: 151.60
• % chg. over the last day: -0.33 %

The Japanese yen weakened to 154 per dollar on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in 14 weeks, amid rising dollar and US Treasury yields after former President Donald Trump took the lead in the US presidential race. The results were largely in line with expectations, and the outcome now hinges on seven key states. Domestically, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting showed that board members generally agreed to keep raising interest rates as inflation and economic conditions align with the Central Bank’s objectives.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 153.54, 152.65
• Resistance levels: 154.31, 155.20

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the Japanese yen reached the level of priority change of 151.65, but buyers managed to protect their positions. Currently, the price, against the background of the US dollar’s growth, is breaking through all resistance levels. To stop the movement, we can consider resistance levels 154.31 and 155.20. For buying, we can consider 153.59 or 152.65, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 151.64, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2738
• Prev. Close: 2744
• % chg. over the last day: +0.22 %

Gold fell sharply to $2,700 per ounce on Wednesday, led by a surge in the US dollar as markets reacted to the preliminary results of the US presidential election. After polls closed in more than two-thirds of states, Trump won an early victory and the outcome now hinges on seven crucial swing states, but the likelihood of a Harris victory is extremely low. Investors are also keeping a close eye on control of Congress as the outcome of the vote could have a significant impact on future spending and tax policy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2704, 2684
• Resistance levels: 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to a downtrend. On the background of the sharp growth of the US dollar, the price of gold broke through the priority change level and rushed lower. A strong divergence is forming on the MACD and RSI indicators, but it is not recommended to look for buy deals until the sellers take the initiative. There are no optimal entry points for selling now either, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving averages.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2750, the uptrend will likely resume.