The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.11.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0807
• Prev. Close: 1.0718
• % chg. over the last day: -0.80 %

The representative of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council Robert Holzmann said that an interest rate cut in December is possible, but by no means guaranteed. Holtzmann is one of the most hawkish officials and was the only dissenter to the initial rate cut. Commenting on Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election last week, Holtzmann said that “it is conceivable that Trump will implement his plans to impose high tariffs against China, and significant tariffs against other parts of the world and Europe.”

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0667, 1.0610
• Resistance levels: 1.0714, 1.0766, 1.0795, 1.0857

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The price seeks to test liquidity below last week’s low. Intraday sales can be considered with a target of 1.0667. Given the MACD divergence, buying should be considered from 1.0667, provided buyers react to the area below the level.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0933 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2985
• Prev. Close: 1.2920
• % chg. over the last day: -0.50 %

According to FitchRatings, the UK’s recent budget has limited fiscal space to respond to future shocks without putting pressure on its creditworthiness. The UK’s credit rating is at “AA-/Stable.” The Bank of England cut the discount rate by 25bps to 4.75% last week, but rising funding needs and market expectations that the budget may slow the bank’s policy easing cycle due to rising inflation are likely to increase the UK’s borrowing costs. This raises the risk of losing another position in the rating.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2898, 1.2870, 1.2848, 1.2733, 1.2642
• Resistance levels: 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro, but the pound is more resistant to the strengthening of the US dollar. The price has now reached the support level of 1.2898, but sellers are exerting strong pressure intraday, having formed another resistance level. Selling can be considered from 1.2905 with a target of 1.2870. Buying can be considered from 1.2870, subject to buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3044 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 152.90
• Prev. Close: 152.63
• % chg. over the last day: -0.18 %

On Monday, the Japanese yen fell to 153 per USD, and a summary of opinions from the October Bank of Japan meeting revealed disagreement among policymakers over the timing of future interest rate hikes. Some Bank members expressed concern about the uncertainty in the global economy and rising market volatility, especially as the yen fell. Despite these concerns, the Central Bank estimates that it may raise the benchmark discount rate to 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 153.29, 153.03, 152.65, 151.45
• Resistance levels: 153.47, 153.90, 154.31, 155.20

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese Yen corrected to the demand zone below 152.65, where buyers reacted with initiative. The price returned to the upside and reached the resistance zone above 153.47. Given that the buyers have stepped up to the support levels of 153.29 and 153.03, the price will likely continue to rise.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 151.64, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2705
• Prev. Close: 2684
• % chg. over the last day: -0.78 %

Gold fell to $2670 per ounce on Monday, its second consecutive decline, as markets await US inflation data and a series of Federal Reserve speeches this week to gauge the path of US interest rates in light of President Trump’s second term. Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bps as expected but signaled a cautious and measured approach to future cuts. This coincided with speculation that the Fed may slow down and reduce the pace of rate cuts, which is negative for gold.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2667, 2634, 2604
• Resistance levels: 2675, 2700, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. On Friday, the price tested liquidity above 2708, where sellers took the initiative. Currently, the price is testing the support level of 2668, but without buyers’ reaction, which increases the probability of the price dropping to 2634. There is no optimal entry point for buying right now. Selling can be considered if sellers take the initiative from the area above 2675.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2750, the uptrend will likely resume.