The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.11.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0709
• Prev. Close: 1.0656
• % chg. over the last day: -0.50 %

The euro fell below $1.07, the lowest level since late June, as traders keep a close eye on economic and monetary developments as well as the political situation in Germany. Expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates more aggressively than the Fed are weighing on the single currency, while the dollar is strengthening amid prognoses that Donald Trump’s policies could lead to higher inflation, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to reduce borrowing costs. On the political front, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed willingness to postpone the parliamentary vote of confidence until a few weeks before Christmas, possibly paving the way for a snap election.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0610
• Resistance levels: 1.06644, 1.0714, 1.0766, 1.0795, 1.0857

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The price tested the liquidity below last week’s low, but there were no buyers, so now the price rushed to test the liquidity below 1.0610. For selling, it is best to consider resistance areas above 1.0664. Given the MACD divergence, buying should be considered from 1.0610, provided buyers react to the below-level area.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0933 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2913
• Prev. Close: 1.2868
• % chg. over the last day: -0.35 %

The British pound traded below $1.29, the lowest in about three months, pressured by a strengthening dollar amid estimates that Donald Trump’s policies could lead to higher inflation, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to reduce borrowing costs. A batch of key UK economic data is expected this week, including Q3 GDP growth, unemployment, and wage growth.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2800, 1.2733, 1.2642
• Resistance levels: 1.2847, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. Today, the price tested the liquidity below 1.2847, but there was no buyers’ reaction. With a high probability, the price is trying to test the liquidity below 1.2800. Selling can be considered from 1.2847 if sellers react to the level. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3044 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 152.64
• Prev. Close: 153.73
• % chg. over the last day: +0.70 %

The Japanese yen held near 153.5 per dollar on Tuesday after falling in the previous session, weakened by dollar strength amid expectations that robust US economic growth and aggressive trade policies under the Trump presidency will boost inflation. The continued weakening of the yen triggered a new verbal intervention from the Japanese authorities, with Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato again warning that Japan would take “appropriate measures” to combat extreme fluctuations in the currency market.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 153.29, 153.03, 152.65, 151.45
• Resistance levels: 153.90, 153.65, 154.31, 155.20

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen reached the resistance level at 153.90, where sellers took the initiative. Currently, the price is testing the supply zone above 153.65, where it is important to evaluate the reaction. If sellers take the initiative here, intraday sales can be considered with the target of 153.29. If buyers break this level, we should expect the price growth to resume. But it is better to consider buying deals when the price fixes above 153.90.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 151.64, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2684
• Prev. Close: 2619
• % chg. over the last day: -2.48 %

On Monday and Tuesday, gold continued to fall to $2,600 per ounce, its lowest level in a month, pressured by the dollar’s rally. The possibility of a rate hike by the Trump administration is weighing on gold prices amid growing expectations that rising inflation will force the Federal Reserve to limit the scope of rate cuts next year. Markets now expect the Fed to cut rates to the upper threshold of 4% by the fourth quarter of 2024, down from the final level of 3% last quarter.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2604, 2554
• Resistance levels: 2627, 2675, 2700, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. Today at the Asian session the price reached the daily support level of 2604. Below this level, there is a large accumulation of liquidity, so it is important to evaluate the price reaction here. If buyers show initiative here, we can consider buying. However, if there is no buyers’ reaction, the price may fall even more, as a test of liquidity will accelerate the bearish momentum.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2710, the uptrend will likely resume.