The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.11.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0530
• Prev. Close: 1.0590
• % chg. over the last day: +0.57 %

On Monday, the euro showed moderate gains amid hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Nagel, who warned that the ECB may be forced to raise interest rates if rising international trade tensions lead to inflationary pressures. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting at 17%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0560, 1.0514, 1.0483
• Resistance levels: 1.0593, 1.0654, 1.0714, 1.0766, 1.0795, 1.0857

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the price retested the resistance level of 1.0593, where sellers showed a reaction, but this time, it was weaker than on Friday. Currently, the price has consolidated below the level, which opens up selling opportunities to 1.0560. Buying can be looked for from 1.0560, provided the buyers react to the level. A breakout and consolidation above 1.0598 will open the price to 1.0654.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0654 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2611
• Prev. Close: 1.2678
• % chg. over the last day: +0.53 %

Major British retailers addressed a letter to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, warning her that the budget passed last month will lead to higher prices and job cuts, negatively affecting investment. The letter said the British retail industry, which directly employs three million jobs and another 2.7 million in the supply chain, will face an annual cost increase of 7 billion pounds ($8.8 billion) from 2025 when higher business rates and the impact of new packaging levies are taken into account.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2642, 1.2601
• Resistance levels: 1.2697, 1.2726, 1.2766, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. On Monday, the price consolidated above the level of 1.2642, breaking through the descending trend line. Currently, the price is aiming to test liquidity above 1.2697. If sellers show a reaction here, the price may decline sharply, forming a flat accumulation. Decreasing volumes increase the probability of such a scenario. A breakout and consolidation above 1.2697 will open the price to 1.2726.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2769 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 154.31
• Prev. Close: 154.65
• % chg. over the last day: +0.22 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 154 per dollar on Tuesday, recovering from four-month lows, as Japanese authorities stepped up verbal warnings against excessive currency fluctuations. Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato reiterated that despite the yen’s brief rebound, the government will continue to monitor exchange rate movements and take action if necessary. In addition, MUFG noted that Japan may accelerate interest rate hikes due to persistent inflationary pressures.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 153.91, 153.70, 153.29, 153.03
• Resistance levels: 155.13, 156.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish, but it is close to changing. The price is starting to form a broadly volatile corridor with the boundaries of 153.91–155.13. Currently, the price is approximately in the center of the flat, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. But there is bearish pressure inside the day, which increases the probability of the price decline. For buying, we can consider the support level at 153.91, provided buyers react to the level. For selling, there are no optimal entry points right now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 153.91, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2568
• Prev. Close: 2612
• % chg. over the last day: +1.71 %

Gold rose above $2,620 per ounce on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in a week, helped by a weaker US dollar. Market attention shifted to comments from Federal Reserve officials, with investors wanting more clarity on the US Central Bank’s course of monetary easing. According to CME FedWatch, expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting fell to 59%, down from 62% the day before and more than 65% a week ago. In addition, heightened geopolitical risks are boosting demand for precious metals such as gold amid ongoing hostilities in the Middle East and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2580, 2554, 2471
• Resistance levels: 2627, 2675, 2700, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. Currently, the price is correcting within the medium-term downtrend. There is an important resistance level in front of the price, above which there is a liquidity accumulation. If the price sharply returns below the level after the liquidity test, it may trigger a strong sell-off to 2580. A price consolidation above 2627 would open the way to 2675.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2704, the uptrend will likely resume.