Week's main events (May 01 – May 05)

This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week's main event, as it is one of the most significant parameters for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report remains robust in April. Traders should pay special attention to the Fed interest rate decision and the FOMC Statement. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates another 25 basis points on Wednesday amid still lingering inflation and growing concerns about the economic outlook.

Also, this week there will be monetary policy decisions from the ECB, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and the Norges Bank. As a rule, rising interest rates are accompanied by a strengthening national currency and weakness in the stock market. Investors should also keep a close eye on the inflation data for the Eurozone and Switzerland. Persistently high inflation could shift the likelihood of a 0.5% rate hike.

Traders should also not forget about the US earning season. This week, companies such as Apple (AAPL), Ford (F), Starbucks (SBUX), Pfizer (PFE), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Moderna (MRNA), Uber (Uber) and many others will report.

Monday, May 01
On Monday, traders will mainly focus on the Manufacturing PMI data in the United States, Canada, and Japan. It's a bank holiday in the Eurozone, Norway, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore, India, and the United Kingdom.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, May 02
The main event on Tuesday will be the decision of the Central Bank of Australia on the interest rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting on Tuesday after recent consumer price data added to evidence that inflation peaked at the end of last year. Volatility in currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Traders should also pay attention to the inflation data in the Eurozone, especially the core inflation indicator. If the core CPI shows no signs of decline, the ECB will remain on the path of aggressive rate hikes. It's a bank holiday in China, Singapore, and Japan.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speaks at 14:20 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 03
Wednesday will bring various statistics for many countries. The Fed Interest Rate Decision will be the most important event on Wednesday. Analysts expect policymakers to raise interest rates by 0.25%. It will also be very important to analyze the FOMC statement. If the Fed continues to expect high inflation, it will signal a decline in the stock market and further growth of the dollar index. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which has a great impact on oil prices, should also be in focus. It's a bank holiday in China and Japan.
Main events of the day:
  • – New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 04
On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the ECB Interest Rate Decisions. According to preliminary data, the ECB is expected to hike rates by another 0.25% to curb inflation. But if the inflation data show no signs of slowing, the odds shift upward by 0.5%. Investors should also keep a close eye on the Norges Bank Interest Rate Decisions. Norway's central bank is predicted to raise the rate by 0.25%. Volatility on currency pairs with NOK will be elevated. It's a bank holiday in Japan.
Main events of the day:
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 00:00 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Norwegian NB Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 19:50 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 05
The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. A strong labor market is needed for the Fed to continue tightening policy. Therefore, weak data is likely to cause the dollar to sell off. Traders should also closely monitor the Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement and inflation data in Switzerland. It's a bank holiday in Japan.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index at 09:30 (m/m) (GMT+3);
  • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2023.05.01

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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