The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.12.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0404
• Prev. Close: 1.0422
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17 %

The number of jobless claims in the US rose to a three-year-high, indicating that the unemployed are taking longer to find work. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that the US labor market remains “in good shape,” although policymakers are watching closely for any signs of deterioration. The labor market is cooling, but not enough to cause concern, Powell said at a press briefing following policymakers’ decision to cut interest rates for the third time in three months. Median FOMC projections point to 50 bps of rate cuts next year, suggesting interest rates will remain higher than previously thought.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0383, 1.0334
• Resistance levels: 1.0424, 1.0449, 1.0493, 1.0513

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro expectedly flattened between 1.0384 and 1.0424. However, the bias remains for the bears, so intraday traders should focus on selling from 1.0424 or from 1.0449, but with confirmation. For buying, 1.0384 can be considered, but also with confirmation, as there is a high probability of an update of last week’s low.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0513 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2553
• Prev. Close: 1.2524
• % chg. over the last day: -0.23 %

The latest data showed that the UK’s economy has not been growing since his labor government came to power in July. The survey data points to a disappointing final quarter, which is expected to spill over into 2025. Prime Minister Keir Starmer hopes his plans to deliver the fastest sustained growth in the G7 through planning reform, housing, and public investment will eventually pay dividends after Labor’s poor start. However, problems will continue to plague the British economy, according to CEBR.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2497, 1.2475, 1.2446
• Resistance levels: 1.2553, 1.2587, 1.2614, 1.2667

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The intraday bias remains for sellers, so sell trades can be considered from the moving averages or the resistance level of 1.2553. For buying, 1.2497 can be revisited, but only with confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks through the resistance level at 1.2667 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 157.18
• Prev. Close: 158.00
• % chg. over the last day: +0.52 %

The Japanese yen rose to 157.6 per dollar on Friday but remained near a five-month low as investors evaluated the latest Tokyo inflation data and the Bank of Japan’s December Summary of Opinions. Tokyo inflation rose to 3% in December from 2.6% in the previous month, which argues in favor of an interest rate hike by the Central Bank. A summary of the Bank of Japan’s December meeting showed that policymakers discussed the possibility of a rate hike soon, with some believing conditions were leveling off for such a move.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 156.90, 155.97, 154.34
• Resistance levels: 157.89, 159.47

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price reached the liquidity zone above 158 and failed to consolidate above it for the first time. Buyers’ pressure is starting to weaken, and MACD divergence hints at an impending correction. Under these market conditions, sell trades can be considered from 157.89 with a target of 156.90. However, the price may make a few more tests of the liquidity zone above 158, so new false breakouts are not excluded. In such a case, additional confirmations should be used to enter selling.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the 155.97 support, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2617
• Prev. Close: 2633
• % chg. over the last day: +0.61 %

Gold traded above $2,630 per ounce on Thursday, although trading volume is expected to remain light due to the ongoing holidays. Investors remain focused on the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and expected tariff policy under the incoming Trump administration, which could influence gold’s direction next year. On the geopolitical front, Hamas and Israel on Wednesday traded accusations of failing to reach a ceasefire agreement, despite progress reported by both sides in recent days.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2621, 2608, 2570
• Resistance levels: 2640, 2664, 2672, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. The price is forming a flat accumulation in the range of 2608–2640 and is likely to stay here until the end of the week. On intraday time frames, there is a slight buying pressure, but the price has approached the resistance zone above 2640. Taking into account MACD divergence, selling can be considered here, but with confirmation. For buying, 2621 would be suitable, but we also need to see buyers’ reactions to the level.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks above the 2664 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.