Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.09.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.1019
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.1012
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.06 %

The euro hit a one-month low as the ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps today amid weaker inflation, which came in at 2.2% in August, slower wage growth, and a downward revision of Q2 GDP to 0.2%. The euro was also pressured yesterday by a stronger dollar after US core inflation rose slightly above expectations, which may limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates aggressively.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.1013, 1.0950, 1.0905, 1.0884
• Level resistance: 1.1026, 1.1059, 1.1140, 1.1191, 1.1275

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the price tested the support level of 1.1013 again, but this time, buyers’ reaction was weak. At the same time, the bears formed a resistance zone above 1.1026 on the price decline. The MACD indicates divergence. For buy deals, the price should consolidate above 1.1026, which allows the price to correct to 1.1059. If sellers maintain 1.1026, the euro could see a sell-off to 1.0950.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1191 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.3071
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.3043
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.21 %

In the UK, the latest GDP data showed zero growth in July, reinforcing expectations of a possible quarter-point rate cut by the Bank of England in November, with some traders also expecting another rate cut in December. GDP slowed for a second month in July, below estimates for a 0.2% increase, and industrial production unexpectedly contracted by 0.8%. In addition, wage growth slowed to 5.1%, the lowest in two years, and private sector wage growth, which the Bank of England monitors, also fell to a 2022 low of 4.9%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.3012, 1.2973, 1.2932, 1.2848, 1.2800
• Level resistance: 1.3049, 1.3075, 1.3120, 1.3150, 1.3202, 1.3306

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is downward. The situation is similar to the euro. Yesterday, the price was tested at the 1.3012 support level, and the buyers took the initiative. The presence of divergence on MACD indicates a corrective movement. The nearest resistance levels where the price reaction should be evaluated are 1.3049 and 1.3075. If sellers show interest here, we can look for sell trades with a target up to 1.3012. A price consolidation above 1.3075 will open the way for the price to the priority change level of 1.3121.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3202 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 142.40
• Tutup sebelumnya: 142.34
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.04 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 141 per dollar, reaching its highest level this year amid the diverging monetary policies between Japan and the US. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to start cutting rates this month, with Fed policymakers warning of growing risks to the labor market. On the other hand, economists expect the Bank of Japan to continue raising rates this fall. Swaps estimate the odds of a 10 bps BoJ rate hike at 0% at the September 20 meeting and 16% at the October 30–31 meeting.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 141.08, 140.22, 137.26
• Level resistance: 143.19, 144.42, 147.17, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is a downtrend. The Japanese yen reached the support level of 141.08 yesterday, where the buyers showed initiative. The presence of divergence on several time frames indicates a deep-up correction. Currently, sellers must evaluate the price reaction to the resistance level of 143.19. If there is an initiative here, it is possible to open sales to continue the downtrend. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance at 143.72, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2516
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2512
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.16 %

The Dollar Index rallied to a one-week high on Wednesday, which was bearish for metals. Gold prices also fell after Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index report for August weakened expectations for a 50 bps Fed rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. However, expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25 bps at today’s meeting are favorable for precious metals.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2511, 2488, 2471, 2451, 2440, 2416, 2367, 2343
• Level resistance: 2520, 2526, 2532

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday’s price tested the 2526 resistance level for the sixth time, where sellers again tried to defend their positions. It should be noted that the more the price tests this level, the weaker it becomes, and the more liquidity is above this level. In other words, a breakout of 2526 could trigger a strong bullish impulse to new all-time highs. However, most likely the price will flat near this level until the US Fed meeting next week. Today, we can look for selling from the resistance level 2520, but with confirmation. There is no optimal entry point for buying now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2451, the downtrend will likely resume.