Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.09.17

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.1075
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.1132
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.51 %

The EUR/USD pair reached a 1-week high. The weakening of the dollar on Monday contributed to the euro’s growth. In addition, hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Kazacs on Monday supported the euro when he said, “There’s still more risk inflation will be higher over the medium term than we expect,” and the ECB “will almost surely need to wait until December for a clearer picture before making its next move” on interest rates. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the October 17 meeting by 32% and a 25bp rate cut at the December 12 meeting by 100%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.1068, 1.1051, 1.1013, 1.0950, 1.0905, 1.0884
• Level resistance: 1.1134, 1.1191, 1.1275

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. On Monday, the euro continued Friday’s growth, even though the volumes on the rising candles are decreasing, which indicates weak interest. Given the divergence on the MACD indicator, there is a high probability of a corrective movement. Currently, the price has reached the resistance level of 1.1134, where we can consider selling, but only with confirmation on the lower time frames. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1002 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.3121
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.3213
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.70 %

The British pound is likely to be influenced by the movement of the US dollar until the inflation report on Wednesday. Inflationary pressures in the Kingdom are expected to continue to ease. Still, economists are confident that high service sector inflation has tied the Bank of England’s hands to begin its rate-cut cycle this week. The latest data showed that the UK economy stagnated in July, falling short of expected growth. High interest rates are hurting economic activity. However, due to this, the British pound has gained an advantage over the dollar and the euro for this fall.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.3182, 1.3115, 1.3086, 1.3072, 1.3033, 1.3012, 1.2973, 1.2932
• Level resistance: 1.3230, 1.3306

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The situation is similar to the euro. On Friday, buyers took the initiative from the support level of 1.3115. Yesterday, the price continued to grow despite the decrease in volumes and despite the MACD divergence. Currently, the price is moving towards the resistance level of 1.3230. If there is a reaction from sellers, we can look for sell deals here. For buying, it is recommended to consider the support at 1.3182, but also with confirmation.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.3033 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 140.80
• Tutup sebelumnya: 140.61
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.13 %

The Japanese yen rose to around 140.5 on Monday and is trading near its highest levels since July 2023 amid a growing divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the US. The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged this week, leaving the door open for another rate hike, possibly as early as October. Last week, Bank of Japan board spokesman Naoki Tamura said the Central Bank should raise short-term rates to at least 1% by fiscal 2026 to steadily achieve its 2% inflation target.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 140.22, 137.26
• Level resistance: 141.30, 143.04, 144.42, 147.17, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is a downtrend. The Japanese yen reached the support level of 140.22, where buyers showed a moderate reaction. The price corrected to the resistance level at 141.29. Here, we can look for selling to continue the downtrend. Buying can be considered from 140.22, if buyers show initiative again intraday. A consolidation below 140.22 will open the price to 138.26.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through and consolidates above the resistance at 143.04, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2579
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2582
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.11 %

Gold rose to $2,590 per ounce on Monday, setting a new record high, helped by a weaker dollar and lower bond yields amid growing expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts in the US this week. Fed funds futures indicate that investors are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will opt for a 50 basis point rate cut, with more than a 50% chance of that happening. This comes after the release of the weekly jobs report, which signaled further softening in the labor market, as evidenced by weak payroll data for August.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2574, 2541, 2528, 2522, 2513, 2503
• Level resistance: 2575, 2600

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The price continues to grow without significant pullbacks. It is difficult to predict where the next resistance levels are, as gold is trading at historical highs. Currently, there are only psychological resistance levels above the price, for example, 2600. The support level of 2573 can be considered for buying. A breakdown and consolidation of the price below 2573 will trigger a deeper correction to 2541.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breakdowns the support level 2513, the downtrend will likely resume.