Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.10.28

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0824
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0796
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.26 %

The euro gave up early gains on Friday and moved to the downside after the dollar bounced off losses and moved to the upside. The euro was also pressured on Friday as the Eurozone M3 money supply for September rose by the most in almost 2 years, which is negative for the euro. In addition, ECB inflation expectations for September declined, which is dovish for ECB policy. As of today, swaps estimate the probability of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100%, while the probability of a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting is 41%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0780
• Level resistance: 1.0805, 1.0836, 1.0868, 1.0894, 1.0951, 1.0979, 1.1013

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro has declined again to the support level of 1.0780. Buyers are showing a reaction, but sellers have built several resistance levels that will be difficult to pass without a news trigger. The 1.0805 resistance level is best considered for selling but with confirmation. Buying can be considered after the price consolidates above the moving averages.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0871 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2960
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2961
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.01 %

Sterling is once again trading below 1.3 against the dollar. This week, the UK budget will be released on Wednesday. Although economists are not expecting any movement in sterling, we always remember events like Liz Truss when her draft budget shocked the market, leading to a sharp sell-off in UK bonds and a fall in the British currency.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2940, 1.2932, 1.2907
• Level resistance: 1.2970, 1.2988, 1.3011, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171, 1.3290

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. However, the buyers have built a strong support zone at 1.2932–1.2940. Currently, the price is trying to test the liquidity above 1.2970. If sellers react here, we can look for intraday sell trades. If the level does not satisfy, the price will rush to test 1.2988.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3032 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 151.83
• Tutup sebelumnya: 152.31
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.32 %

The Japanese yen fell to 153.5 per dollar on Monday, hitting a near three-month low after the ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority in weekend elections, dampening the prospects of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito lost the most seats in the lower house of parliament since 2009, raising political and economic uncertainty and further complicating the Central Bank’s plans to normalize the economy. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is due to decide on monetary policy on Thursday, although it is expected to leave it unchanged. A weakening yen increases the likelihood of new interventions.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 153.44, 152.70, 151.64, 151.16, 152.00, 150.50, 149.63
• Level resistance: 154.93

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price has reached the resistance zone at 154.43. Buyers will do their best to hold this level to continue the growth. Therefore, the price reaction to this level will open up buying opportunities with a target of 154.93. If the price consolidates below 153.43, considering the MACD divergence, it is worth switching to selling with the first target of 152.70 intraday.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks down the support level of 151.62, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2736
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2747
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.40 %

Gold dipped below $2730/oz on Monday, pressured by the declining attractiveness of safe-haven assets after Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend were more restrained than expected. Israeli jets struck military targets inside Iran on Saturday, avoiding oil and nuclear sites, and Tehran did not immediately promise to respond. Nevertheless, uncertainty surrounding the US elections and policy easing by other major central banks continues to support gold in the medium term.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2725, 2708, 2704, 2714, 2704, 2667, 2661, 2640, 2605, 2584, 2574
• Level resistance: 2743, 2752

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold opened with a price gap down today, but buyers immediately started to buy the price back. Currently, the price is trying to test an all-time high, and there are all preconditions for further growth. However, since the price is now in front of the resistance zone, it is not recommended to buy at current prices but to wait for a pullback within the day. The first growth target is 2743. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2640, the downtrend will likely resume.