Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.10.31

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0815
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0857
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.39 %

The euro rose to 1.0850 against the USD after unexpectedly strong data on Eurozone economic growth and German inflation, which made investors lower their expectations of an ECB rate cut. Eurozone Q3 GDP grew by 0.4% QoQ and 0.9% YoY, stronger than expectations of 0.2% QoQ and 0.8% YoY. Germany delivered a surprise, avoiding recession and achieving 0.2% growth, while France and Spain also reported stronger-than-expected growth. Meanwhile, German inflation rose more than expected to 2.4%. Eurozone inflation data is expected today. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting at 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting at 20%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0842, 1.0808, 1.0787
• Level resistance: 1.0862, 1.0871, 1.0894, 1.0951, 1.0979, 1.1013

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish but close to change. Yesterday, the price reached the priority change level, but sellers were able to show activity, followed by a corrective decline. The price is expected to test liquidity above 1.0871. Therefore, intraday, it is better to focus on buying up to this level. Selling can be considered if a sharp, bearish initiative follows after the retest of 1.0871.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0871 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.3009
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2963
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.35 %

In the UK, traders lowered expectations of a Bank of England rate cut and reacted to the first budget of the Labor government. Chancellor Rachel Reeves introduced £40 billion in tax increases to boost public services and plug a £22 billion budget hole inherited from the previous government. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that the new measures will increase inflation by 0.4%, with a peak effect in 2026. Inflation is expected to average 2.5% in 2024 and rise to 2.6% in 2025. The GDP growth estimate has been revised to 1.1% in 2024 and 2% in 2025. The Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25bps next week.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2965, 1.2904
• Level resistance: 1.2987, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171, 1.3290

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish but close to a reversal. The price reached the priority level, but sellers took the initiative and protected their positions. Currently, the price is trading near the resistance level of 1.2987, but it is at an intermediate level, which is not able to reverse the price. Under such market conditions, buy deals should be considered from the support level of 1.2965 with the aim of retesting the priority change level of 1.3032.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3032 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 153.36
• Tutup sebelumnya: 153.30
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.04 %

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously kept the key short-term interest rate at 0.25% at its October meeting, leaving it at the highest level since 2008. The decision came amid a changing political environment following the Japanese election and ahead of the US presidential election. Meanwhile, Governor Kazuo Ueda underscored concerns about the increasingly uncertain outlook for the global economy, saying the Central Bank has time to analyze risk factors after raising rates in March and July. The board remains bullish on further rate hikes if economic and price data matches its projections.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 152.08, 151.70, 151.16, 152.00, 150.50, 149.63
• Level resistance: 152.57, 153.06, 153.86, 154.93

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen has gone into a medium-term corrective phase. Currently, the price has reached the support level of 152.08, but this level will probably not be able to keep the price from such a strong pressure of sellers. Under such market conditions, it is worth looking for sell trades from 152.57 or from 153.06 with the aim to test the priority change level of 151.70.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks down the support level of 151.70, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2773
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2787
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.50 %

Gold traded above the $2,780 per ounce mark on Thursday, holding at record levels, helped by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid uncertainty surrounding the US election and geopolitical risks. Markets are also assessing the latest US economic data, which showed GDP growth of 2.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly below expectations of 3%. Investors are now awaiting PCE and payroll data due out on Thursday and Friday. In the medium term, traders expect further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, which is favorable for precious metals.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2771, 2761, 2738, 2725, 2708, 2704, 2714, 2704, 2667
• Level resistance: 2790, 2800

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. It is getting harder and harder for the price to overcome new tops. Gold has long overdue a correction, but there is no trigger for a sell-off yet. Perhaps the US presidential election next week will make its investment. Technically, we can see the price decline to 2771. There are no optimal entry points for buying now, as the price has nothing to stand on for further growth, and MACD divergence and oversold indicators point to a correction.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2727, the downtrend will likely resume.