Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.11.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0858
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0882
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.22 %

The euro rose to $1.0870, a two-week high after better-than-expected Eurozone inflation data spurred investor bets that the ECB will continue its gradual approach to rate cuts, avoiding large cuts. The Eurozone’s annual inflation rate rose to 2% from a 2021 low of 1.7% and beat forecasts of 1.9%. The core rate remained at 2.7%, although markets had expected it to fall to 2.6%. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting by 100% and a 50 bps rate cut at the same meeting by 25%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0848, 1.0842, 1.0811, 1.0787
• Level resistance: 1.0878, 1.0890, 1.0951, 1.0979, 1.1013

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to an upward trend. Yesterday, the price consolidated above the priority change level. Inside the day, the bias is now for the buyers, but there are no suitable points to open positions here. On the contrary, there are 2 sell levels that can be used for corrective movement. These are the levels of 1.0878 and 1.0890. If sellers will react to these levels, intraday, you can look for sales, but with short targets.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.0811 and consolidates below, the downtrend will be resumed with a high probability.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2960
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2893
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.52 %

The British pound fell to 1.285 USD, the lowest level since mid-August, amid concerns over the Labor government’s first budget. Sterling fluctuated between rising and falling on Wednesday as the budget was presented but eventually declined. The Bank of England (BoE) is still expected to cut borrowing costs by a further 25 bps next week. However, traders are now betting on three 0.25% cuts by the end of 2025, up from five last week.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2847
• Level resistance: 1.2903, 1.2999, 1.2987, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, the price bounced sharply from the zone above 1.2987 and reached the support level of 1.2847 by the end of the trading session. The price has rebounded a bit, and further development will depend on the price’s reaction to the level of 1.2903. The breakout of this level will allow buyers to raise the price to 1.2940. But another wave of sell-off will follow if the price fails to consolidate above 1.2903 today.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2999 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 153.30
• Tutup sebelumnya: 152.04
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.83 %

The Japanese yen strengthened to 152.2 per dollar on Friday, gaining almost 1% after the previous session, helped by hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan left the policy rate unchanged at 0.25%. The decision was widely expected as the central bank is undergoing a political realignment in Japan, leading to uncertainty over the country’s fiscal and monetary policies. At a press conference after the meeting, Ueda noted that economic risks in the US have eased somewhat, suggesting that conditions are being created for further rate hikes. Markets speculate that the Bank of Japan may raise rates to 0.5% early in January.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 151.80, 151.70, 151.16, 152.00, 150.50, 149.63
• Level resistance: 152.49, 153.06, 153.86, 154.93

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen has gone into a medium-term corrective phase. Yesterday, the price reached the support level of 151.80, where buyers showed a reaction. Sellers built 2 resistance zones — 152.49 and 153.06. From these levels, we can look for sell deals, but with confirmation. A breakout of 152.49 will open the way to 153.06.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breakdown the support level of 151.70, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2788
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2744
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -1.60 %

Gold declined towards $2750 per ounce on Thursday as markets continued to assess the demand for safety and protection against pro-inflationary trends in the US economy under pressure from a less lenient Federal Reserve. New data indicated that PCE inflation remains above target, with the labor market seeing a sharp decline in jobless claims over the past week. The data confirmed the view that the US economy is resilient to rising borrowing costs and gives the Fed room to refrain from aggressive cuts. Nevertheless, the possibility of another Trump presidency strengthens expectations of expansionary fiscal policy, which makes gold a good instrument of defense against new inflationary risks.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2746, 2725, 2708, 2704, 2714, 2704, 2667
• Level resistance: 2761, 2771, 2790, 2800

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold expectedly corrected. This correction was long overdue, as the price cannot overcome new historical highs without a correction. The price has found support at 2738, and the buyers have formed another support at 2746. From the latter, we can look for buying with the target of 2761 or 2771. There are no optimal entry points for selling now.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breakdown the support level of 2727, the downtrend will likely resume.