Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.11.18

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0530
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0540
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.09 %

Expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates more aggressively than the Fed are weighing on the single currency, while the dollar is strengthening amid estimates that Donald Trump’s policies could lead to higher inflation, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to reduce borrowing costs. The European Commission prognoses Eurozone GDP for 2024 at 0.8%, inflation at 2.4%, and predicts Eurozone inflation to slow to the 2% target in Q4 2025. Swaps discount the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the December 12 meeting by 100% and a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting by 23%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0514, 1.0483
• Level resistance: 1.0593, 1.0664, 1.0714, 1.0766, 1.0795, 1.0857

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. On Friday, the price reached the resistance level of 1.0593, where sellers took the initiative, renewing the bearish pressure. Currently, the price is forming a flat accumulation. Buy deals can be looked for from 1.0514, provided buyers react to the level. A breakdown of 1.0514 will open the price to 1.0483.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0654 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2663
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2619
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.34 %

The UK economy grew by just 0.1% in the third quarter, missing estimates, and the unexpected contraction in September was driven by a decline in manufacturing output and reduced activity in the information and communication sector. Growth in services and construction helped offset some of the decline in output. Labor productivity in the United Kingdom, measured by output per hour worked, fell 0.8% in the third quarter of 2024 after rising 0.2% in the previous period, preliminary estimates showed. On an annualized basis, output per hour worked fell by 1.8% after a 0.3% decline in the previous quarter. 

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2601
• Level resistance: 1.2642, 1.2727, 1.2766, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. On Friday, sellers prevented the price from reaching the resistance at 1.2727. The price continued to decline and, by the end of the trading session, reached the support level at 1.2601, where buyers took the initiative at Monday’s opening. Currently, the price is trading in front of the resistance zone above 1.2642. The breakout of this zone will open the price way to 1.2700. If the sellers take the initiative at 1.2642, it is worth switching to the selling scenario.

Skenario alternatif:

 if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2769 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 156.25
• Tutup sebelumnya: 154.29
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -1.27 %

The Japanese yen weakened again to 155 per dollar on Monday, cutting gains from the previous session as investors reacted to comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The Central Bank chief reiterated that he would gradually raise interest rates if the economy performed as expected but did not indicate the timing of future rate hikes. Ueda also said they are paying attention to various risks, including those affecting the US economy. The yen rose more than 1% on Friday after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato hinted at the possibility of intervention if the currency depreciates too quickly. 

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 153.91, 153.70, 153.29, 153.03
• Level resistance: 155.13, 156.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish, but it is close to changing. On Friday, the Japanese yen reached the priority changeover level below 154, but buyers took the initiative. At the opening of the Asian session, the price retested the level where it saw a reaction from the buyers again. However, sellers are not letting the price consolidate above the moving averages. Under such market conditions, selling can be looked for from 155.13 and buying from 153.70, but again, provided the price reacts to one of the levels.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks down the support level of 153.91, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2565
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2562
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.12 %

Gold rose near $2,600 an ounce on Monday, recovering from its worst weekly drop since 2021, amid a pause in the US dollar rally. Comments by some Federal Reserve officials last week added to uncertainty over the timing and extent of potential rate cuts. Nevertheless, markets currently estimate the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December at around 55%. Investors are now focused on upcoming speeches by other Fed policymakers this week, in search of clearer guidance on the direction of US interest rates in the coming months. On the geopolitical front, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the escalating conflict between Ukraine and Russia may encourage funds to flow into safe-haven areas, lending further support to gold.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2554, 2471
• Level resistance: 2586, 2627, 2675, 2700, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. On Thursday last week, gold tested liquidity below 2554, where buyers took the initiative. A technical correction has started, and now the price has reached the resistance level of 2586, but there is no reaction from sellers yet. Buyers need to keep the price above the moving averages. This will allow to continue the growth up to 2619. If the price is fixed below the moving averages again, we should expect the price to decline to 2554.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2704, the uptrend will likely resume.