Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.11.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0473
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0419
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.51 %

On Friday, the euro fell sharply to $1.035, its lowest level since November 2022, after the release of PMI data showing continued weakness in Eurozone business activity. The Eurozone composite PMI fell to 48.1 in November from 50 in October, well below the expected reading of 50, as the services sector contracted for the first time in ten months, reflecting a continued slump in manufacturing. Earlier this week, in its annual financial stability review, the ECB emphasized that heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty are increasing sovereign vulnerabilities while rising global trade tensions increase the likelihood of adverse economic shocks.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0441, 1.0233
• Level resistance: 1.0497, 1.0515, 1.0568, 1.0607, 1.0654, 1.0714

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. On Friday, the euro fell below 1.04, but at Monday’s opening, there was a price gap, thanks to which the price held again above the level of 1.0441. This gap can be considered as an impulse candle up. Currently, the price is testing liquidity above 1.0497, but there is no seller’s reaction. Under such market conditions, buying can be considered after the price consolidates above 1.0497 with a target of 1.0569. If, after a liquidity test above 1.0497, the price sharply returns below the level, it will open up selling opportunities. However, given the MACD divergence and the rise in price after the volume surge, the probability of a correction is higher.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0654 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2588
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2532
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.44 %

The British pound fell to below $1.26, its lowest since mid-May, as traders reacted to disappointing economic data. Retail sales fell by 0.7% in October (more than expected), and flash PMIs also came in below estimates, indicating a decline in business activity. Most analysts expect the Bank of England to leave borrowing costs unchanged in December, with the probability of a quarter-point rate cut currently around 14%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2566, 1.2528
• Level resistance: 1.2605, 1.2714, 1.2766, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023.

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. On Monday, the price opened with a price gap, holding the price above 1.2566. Currently, the price is testing liquidity above 1.2605. A breakout and consolidation above 1.2605 will open the way for the price to 1.27 and higher. If sellers react to the level, intraday selling can be looked for. However, the probability of growth is higher, as volumes and MACD divergence hint at a correction.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2714 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 154.49
• Tutup sebelumnya: 154.76
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.17 %

Japan’s overall inflation rate slowed to a nine-month low of 2.3% in October, while the core inflation rate also fell to 2.3%, a six-month low, slightly above the projection of 2.2%. Manufacturing activity contracted more sharply than expected in November, although service sector activity rose. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled the possibility of another rate hike as early as December, citing the recent weakening of the yen. In addition, the administration of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is considering a $90 billion stimulus package to ease the impact of rising prices on households.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 153.91, 153.70, 153.29, 153.03
• Level resistance: 153.39, 155.25, 155.87, 156.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish, but the reversal is very close. On Monday, at the opening, the price tested the liquidity below the priority change level again, but the buyers quickly pushed the price back. Currently, the price is trying to test liquidity above 154.39. If the sellers react here, which is very likely, we may see a trend change on the current time frame. If the price breaks 154.39 on an impulse bar, the next target will be 155.25.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks down the support level of 153.91, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2670
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2715
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +1.68 %

Gold rose to $2715 an ounce on Friday, climbing for the fifth straight session and gaining nearly 5% for the week, as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks. Last week, Ukraine launched Western-supplied missiles at Russia, and Russia retaliated by firing its first intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine. Meanwhile, markets continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook after an unexpected drop in US jobless claims, which increased speculation about a slowdown in the pace of Fed rate cuts.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2660, 2640, 2580, 2559, 2471
• Level resistance: 2683, 2704, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to a bullish one. On Monday, a correction started on gold. After testing liquidity above 2704, the price sharply returned below the level, which provoked a false breakout (grabbing new liquidity) and a sell-off. Currently, the price has reached the support level of 2660. A breakdown and consolidation of the price below this level will trigger further sell-offs to 2640 and below. If buyers react from 2660, the price will rebound to 2683.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 2618, the downtrend will likely resume.