Tinjauan Analitis Pasangan Mata Uang Utama pada 2024.12.20

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.0351
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.0326
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.24 %

The euro showed slight gains after the news that the German GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose more than expected on Thursday, which is favorable for the euro. However, another strengthening of the US dollar limited the euro’s gains. Swaps estimate the chances of a 25bp ECB rate cut at the next meeting on January 30 at 100%, while the probability of a 50bp rate cut at this meeting is 12%.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.0332, 1.0482, 1.0460, 1.0425
• Level resistance: 1.0384, 1.0425, 1.0460, 1.0483, 1.0537, 1.0565, 1.0615

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro remains under pressure. The space for further decline remains. Buying is not recommended, because for the market to turn around, we need to see liquidity grabbing with buyers’ initiative. Neither of these is present now. However, there are the first signs of MACD divergence. It is recommended to look for sell deals from the moving average lines or from the resistance level of 1.0384.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0513 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 1.2568
• Tutup sebelumnya: 1.2502
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: -0.53 %

The Bank of England left the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75% as expected, but three representatives of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favor of a rate cut, instead of the expected consensus to hold the rate. This dovish signal from the Central Bank put pressure on the pound, which slipped below the $1.26 per dollar mark. The Central Bank emphasized that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy should remain restrictive long enough until the risks of a sustained return of inflation to the 2% target in the medium term dissipate. 

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 1.2487, 1.2446
• Level resistance: 1.2535, 1.2567, 1.2667, 1.2719, 1.2748, 1.2786, 1.2878.

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The British pound reached the support level of 1.2487, where buyers took the initiative. Most likely, we should expect a technical rebound here, as there is no liquidity capture for a reversal. Therefore, for now, the narrative remains in favor of the bears. For selling, it is better to consider the moving averages or the resistance level of 1.2535, but with confirmation.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2667 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 154.77
• Tutup sebelumnya: 157.41
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +1.71 %

The Bank of Japan’s decision caused a sharp decline in the yen against the US dollar to 157, which fell nearly 2% to a five-month low on Thursday. However, after the inflation data, the yen strengthened slightly. Japan’s core inflation rate rose to a three-month high of 2.9% in November, up from 2.3% in October. The Core Inflation Rate also jumped to 2.7%, beating market expectations of 2.6%. This data supports the Bank of Japan’s more hawkish monetary policy outlook.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 156.39, 154.93, 154.34, 153.14, 152.45, 151.94, 151.41
• Level resistance: 157.90

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price reached the resistance level above 157.91, but the sellers’ reaction is weak. This increases the probability of a liquidity test above 155.87. There is a sellers’ reaction. Intraday, we can look for selling with a target up to 156.39 where buyers can regain lost positions. A breakdown of 156.39 could trigger a fall to 154.93.

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the 153.14 support, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknis pasangan mata uang:

• Buka sebelumnya: 2593
• Tutup sebelumnya: 2597
• % perubahan selama sehari terakhir: +0.15 %

On Friday, gold traded around the $2,600 per ounce mark, marking a weekly decline under pressure from the hawkish outlook of the Federal Reserve. Gold could face further near-term challenges from weakening physical demand in key consumer India, where government officials expect gold imports to fall sharply in December. Still, the metal is up about 25% so far this year.

Rekomendasi trading

• Level support: 2580, 2559, 2471
• Level resistance: 2614, 2644, 2673, 2693, 2700, 2721, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. Currently, sellers are looking to bring the price below 2580 for a liquidity test. Therefore, intraday we can look for selling from 2618, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now. 

Skenario alternatif:

if the price breaks above the 2614 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.