Trump will likely become the 47th president of the United States. US stock indices and the dollar are reacting with sharp gains

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 1.11% at the end of Tuesday. The S&P500 Index (US500) rose 1.23%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.32%. Stocks were supported by an improving soft landing outlook after Tuesday’s news that the October ISM Services Business Activity Index unexpectedly rose by 1.1 to a 2-year high of 56.0, stronger than expectations for a decline to 53.8. Tuesday’s US trade news was negative for the US dollar as the trade deficit for September came in at $84.4 billion, exceeding expectations of $84.0 billion and the largest deficit in nearly 2 years, which is negative for Q3 GDP.

Markets are now focused on:

• the results of the US presidential election;
• the results of the FOMC meeting this week on Thursday (expected rate cut of -25 bps) and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments after the meeting; 
• Q3 corporate earnings results: nearly 20% of S&P 500 companies are expected to report this week. Among S&P 500 companies reporting third-quarter earnings, 78% surpassed projections.

Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN) closed down more than 9% after reporting Q3 operating revenue of $1.69 billion, which was weaker than the consensus estimate of $1.73 billion. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed higher by more than 23% and topped the list of top gainers in the S&P 500 after reporting Q3 revenue of $725.5 million, beating the consensus prognosis of $703.7 million, and raising its full-year adjusted operating profit outlook to $1.05–1.06 billion from the previous estimate of $966–974 million.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) jumped to $75,000 on Wednesday, hitting new all-time highs as Republican candidate Donald Trump took an early lead in the US presidential race. Throughout his election campaign, Trump actively supported the digital assets industry, promising to make the US the “crypto capital” of the world. In contrast, Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris has been more restrained on the issue, while the Biden administration has taken a tougher approach to the digital assets sector. 

Equity markets in Europe rose steadily yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.57%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.48%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.29%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.14%. European Stock Index Futures showed increased volatility in pre-market trading on Wednesday as investors closely followed the results of the US presidential election, where Donald Trump significantly outperformed Kamala Harris. Trump’s potential victory could spark a new rally in global stock markets, although concerns over future US-EU relations are likely to add an element of uncertainty to market sentiment.

Silver prices fell to $31.7 an ounce on Wednesday, at their lowest level in nearly three weeks, driven by a strengthening US dollar after early opinion polls showed favorable results for Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election. 

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.11%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.85%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.14%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.40%. The Hang Seng retreated from a more than two-week peak reached the previous day as traders kept a close eye on the outcome of the US presidential election. Trump is believed to break the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next leader. Trump’s presidency could put pressure on Chinese indices, as it did in his first term as US head.

On Tuesday, Li Qiang, Premier of China’s State Council, expressed confidence that the country would meet its GDP target for the year, helped by a series of policy measures taken by Beijing. Investors are now awaiting more details from the ongoing National People’s Congress, where authorities are expected to unveil additional fiscal stimulus plans to support economic growth.

In New Zealand, data showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the third quarter from 4.6% in the previous quarter, but below market estimates of 5%. In addition, annual wage inflation slowed for the sixth consecutive quarter. With the economy possibly sliding into recession, the softening labor market gives the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) more room to cut interest rates further, as the economy is likely to slip into recession.