The EUR/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.1177
- Prev. Close: 1.1133
- % chg. over the last day: -0.39 %
On Wednesday, the euro initially went up, based on hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Knot, who said that he does not see interest rates returning to extremely low levels before a pandemic. In addition, Central Bank divergence is helping the euro: the ECB will only cut rates by another 25bp this year, while the Fed is expected to cut rates by 50bp by the end of the year. But the Dollar Index was supported yesterday afternoon on a more favorable than expected US new home sales report for August.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.1122, 1.1105, 1.1068
- Resistance levels: 1.1180, 1.1275
The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish, but yesterday the price corrected to the level of priority change. Buyers are trying to protect their positions. Under such market conditions, buying can be considered today. The price going below 1.1122 is not acceptable for buyers. Selling can be considered around 1.1175–1.1180, but with confirmation.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks the support level of 1.1122 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.09.26
- US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Collins Speaks at 16:10 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+3);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 16:20 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:25 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
- US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3)
- US FOMC Member Barr at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Cook at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.3410
- Prev. Close: 1.3323
- % chg. over the last day: -0.63 %
Last week, the Fed made a massive 50bp rate cut and signaled further rate cuts this year and next, which led to a decline in the US dollar and benefited sterling, which rose to its highest since April 2022. The interest rate differential is now in favor of the British currency.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3274, 1.3241, 1.3188, 1.3153, 1.3115
- Resistance levels: 1.3378, 1.3405, 1.3455
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The British pound tested the liquidity above 1.3405 yesterday, which was followed by a sharp sell-off. The price corrected below the moving averages but did not reach the support level. We should expect price to reach this level before the end of the week. For buying, the support level of 1.3300 is worth considering. For selling, it is best to target liquidity above 1.3378, but with confirmation.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks the support level of 1.3242 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.09.26
There is no news feed for today.
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 143.17
- Prev. Close: 144.74
- % chg. over the last day: +1.09 %
On Thursday, the Japanese yen declined to 144.8, hitting a three-week low, amid a rising dollar. Domestically, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting showed that council members urged vigilance on inflation risks but cautioned against creating too much market expectation for future rate hikes. A cabinet official also said the council should remain vigilant on the impact of a weak yen, rising inflation on household purchasing power, and external risks from other major economies.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 143.86, 142.89, 142.19, 141.13, 140.43, 137.26
- Resistance levels: 145.51, 148.29, 150.88, 151.26
From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair has changed temporarily to an uptrend. Yesterday, buyers broke the upper boundary of the flat and now the price is trying to test the resistance level at 145.51. Buying trades can be sought intraday from the moving average lines but with confirmation. Buying can also be considered from the 143.86 level. There are no optimal entry points for selling now, but MACD divergence indicates that the price will correct soon.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks and consolidates below the support at 142.89, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.09.26
- Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 2659
- Prev. Close: 2657
- % chg. over the last day: -0.07 %
Gold held near the $2,660 per ounce mark on Thursday, trading at record levels as markets continued to assess the extent of expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as part of the ongoing easing cycle. Several Fed officials this week called for a cautious approach to policy adjustments following an aggressive 50 bps rate cut earlier this month. Nevertheless, markets expect a higher probability of a rate cut in November, with fed funds futures pointing to a 62% probability of another 50bp rate cut.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 2650, 2637, 2620, 2604, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
- Resistance levels: 2675, 2700
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. The price is forming a narrowing triangle, which is usually a trend continuation pattern. Buying should be considered when the price exits the triangle higher or from the 2637 support level. There are no optimal entry points for selling now, there is no proper reaction from sellers. However, the MACD divergence indicates buyers’ weakness and impending correction.
Alternative scenario:if the price breakdown the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.09.26
- US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Collins Speaks at 16:10 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+3);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 16:20 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:25 (GMT+3);
- US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3)
- US FOMC Member Barr at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Cook at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
