The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.10.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.1043
• Prev. Close: 1.1031
• % chg. over the last day: -0.11 %

The euro fell to a three-week low as weak Eurozone data and inflation below the ECB’s 2% target increased expectations of a rate cut. Markets believe there is a 95% chance of a 25bp rate cut this month. ECB executives, including Christine Lagarde, have signalled support for this outlook. Isabel Schnabel, normally hawkish, said inflation could soon reach the 2% target, raising the stakes for a rate cut.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1013
• Resistance levels: 1.1041, 1.1084, 1.1136, 1.1163, 1.1198, 1.1275

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Yesterday, the buyers failed to hold the sellers’ pressure. As a result, the price broke through the support level at 1.1041 and reached the demand zone below 1.1013, where the buyers took the initiative, which is also confirmed by the surge in volume. Given the MACD divergence, we can look for buy trades here. There are no optimal entry points for selling now, as the price is trading near support levels.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.1163 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.3260
• Prev. Close: 1.3124
• % chg. over the last day: -1.04 %

The British pound weakened to $1.31, moving away from the March 2022 highs reached in late September, after comments from the Bank of England Governor raised bets that the Central Bank will make another rate cut in November. Andrew Bailey told the Guardian that the bank could move more quickly to cut interest rates if there is more good news on inflation. Markets are now pricing in a 25bp rate cut next month and a 40% chance of a similar cut in December.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3097, 1.3035
• Resistance levels: 1.3155, 1.3293, 1.3327, 1.3377, 1.3389

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is similar to the euro, but the MACD indicator has not yet shown divergence. Currently, the price has reached the support level of 1.3097, where buyers showed a moderate reaction. But this may be only the first fix of previously opened positions, and the price may go even lower on the news today. Buying should be considered intraday from 1.3120 but with confirmation. Selling can be considered from 1.3155, subject to sellers’ reactions.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3389 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 146.39
• Prev. Close: 146.91
• % chg. over the last day: +0.36 %

The Japanese yen slid to 147 per dollar on Thursday, hitting a one-month low, as new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said it was too early to raise rates after meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. He said that current economic conditions do not warrant further rate hikes, leading markets to drop their expectations for the BoJ’s next rate hike.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 146.02, 143.84, 143.53, 143.02, 142.22, 140.46, 137.26
• Resistance levels: 146.87, 148.29

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the price reached the resistance level of 146.87, where sellers managed to keep the price from further growth. Currently, the price is correcting. The support level of 146.02 can be considered for buying, but with confirmation. A breakdown of this level may cause a strong sell-off as far as 144.20.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 143.53, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2659
• Prev. Close: 2656
• % chg. over the last day: -0.11 %

Gold held near $2,655 an ounce on Thursday, staying near record highs as the deepening Middle East crisis continues to boost the metal’s appeal as a safe-haven currency. Earlier this week, Iran launched a missile strike on Israel, prompting Israel to step up strikes across the Middle East and vow to retaliate against Iran. However, recent strong US jobs data has limited gold’s upward momentum, reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to implement looser monetary policy.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2661, 2655, 2643, 2624, 2584, 2574, 2561, 2541, 2528, 2522
• Resistance levels: 2670, 2700

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, the price tested the support level of 2642 twice more, where the buyers took the initiative again. Currently, the price is aiming to test 2670, where we should expect the sellers’ reaction. Here, we can consider selling, provided the initiative. Buying can be considered from 2661 or 2655, but also with confirmation.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 2569, the downtrend will likely resume.