The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.10.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0814
• Prev. Close: 1.0813
• % chg. over the last day: -0.01 %

Investors are awaiting key inflation and growth data this week, which could influence ECB policy. Recently, weaker economic data and comments from ECB policymakers expressing concerns that inflation will fall short of the 2% target have fueled expectations of deeper rate cuts. Meanwhile, a GfK survey in Germany pointed to a solid recovery in consumer sentiment in November, although long-term economic expectations in the Eurozone’s largest economy fell for the third consecutive month. Today’s focus will be on Q3 Eurozone GDP growth data, with estimates pointing to 0.2% growth.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0818, 1.0787
• Resistance levels: 1.0826, 1.0835, 1.0868, 1.0894, 1.0951, 1.0979, 1.1013

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The euro corrected to the resistance level of 1.0826. Sellers are trying to protect their positions here. In turn, the buyers have built a support level of 1.0818, which can become a support for breaking through 1.0826. Further, it is necessary to evaluate the reaction of the price: the breakout of 1.0826 will open the price way to 1.0835. If buyers fail to hold 1.0818, a sharp sell-off to 1.0787 is highly likely.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.0871 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2971
• Prev. Close: 1.3008
• % chg. over the last day: +0.28 %

Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves is due to present the Labour Party’s first budget in Parliament tomorrow as politicians seek to balance the opposing forces of low growth and rising fiscal risks to the UK economy. Investors are refraining from risk-taking on the British currency ahead of this publication.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3003, 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2940, 1.2932, 1.2907
• Resistance levels: 1.2975, 1.2988, 1.3001, 1.3032, 1.3071, 1.3103, 1.3171, 1.3290

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish, but close to a reversal. The price has reached the resistance level at 1.3015 and sellers have taken the initiative here. Buyers are trying to create a bridgehead for further growth in the form of support level 1.3003, but the level is weak. A move below 1.3003 could trigger a sell-off to 1.2979 or even 1.2960. There are no optimal entry points for buying now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3032 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 153.24
• Prev. Close: 153.34
• % chg. over the last day: +0.07 %

The Japanese yen hovered at a three-month low against the dollar on Wednesday as investors await the Bank of Japan’s latest decision. The Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged on Thursday while traders await hints of a possible rate hike before the end of the year. Such cautious outlooks follow recent data showing weak exports and stagnant household spending. The market also fears that a further drop to the 160 level could trigger another round of currency intervention.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 153.17, 152.70, 151.64, 151.16, 152.00, 150.50, 149.63
• Resistance levels: 153.86, 154.93

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Sellers are still managing to keep the price below 153.86, but buyers are pushing the price in the form of a triangle. Buying can be considered from 153.17 but with a short stop loss. The profit target is to test the liquidity above 154.86. A move below 153.17 will trigger a sell-off to 152.70.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 151.62, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2742
• Prev. Close: 2775
• % chg. over the last day: +1.20 %

Gold rose to $2,780 per ounce on Wednesday, setting a new record, as investors digested the latest jobs data and assessed geopolitical risks ahead of the US elections. The JOLTS report showed that US job openings had fallen to their lowest level since 2021, contrasting with September data that showed resilience, which dampened expectations of further aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, markets are fully pricing in the possibility of a 25 bps rate cut at each of the Fed’s remaining meetings this year. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2777, 2761, 2752, 2739, 2725, 2708, 2704, 2714, 2704, 2667
• Resistance levels: 2800

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has once again updated the historical maximum. In terms of resistance, only the psychological level of 2800 is higher. It is not recommended to sell against this trend without confirmation. Buying can be considered from 2777 or from moving averages.

Alternative scenario:

 if the price breaks down the support level of 2727, the downtrend will likely resume.