The EUR/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.0928
- Prev. Close: 1.0728
- % chg. over the last day: -1.86 %
The euro fell more than 1.86% to $1.072, the lowest level in about four months, and was the worst day since March 2020 as Trump’s victory in the US presidential election strengthened the dollar. Trump’s victory poses significant risks to the European economy, especially with potential tariffs on key sectors such as auto and chemicals, as well as security concerns and support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, European traders have adjusted their ECB rate cut estimates, predicting the deposit rate to fall to 2% by 2025, slightly lower than the 2.1% expected before the election.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.0726, 1.0667, 1.0610
- Resistance levels: 1.0750, 1.0795, 1.0857
The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. The sharp strengthening of the US dollar led to the price of EUR/USD falling sharply. Most likely, the price will seek to test liquidity below 1.0667, so another wave of decline is very likely. Sell deals can be sought either from 1.0795 or after the price consolidates below 1.0726. A breakout of 1.0750 will open the way for a correction to 1.0795.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0933 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.11.07
- German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).
The GBP/USD currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 1.3031
- Prev. Close: 1.2878
- % chg. over the last day: -1.18 %
The Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting in the UK today. Economists expect that with 80% probability, the Bank of England will cut the rate by a quarter point — from 5% to 4.75%. However, investors expect this to be the last rate cut this year. There is less than a 30% chance of a rate cut in December. The latest inflation report showed the core rate fell from 3.6% to 3.2% y/y, and the core rate (excluding food and energy prices) fell below 2%, the Bank of England’s key level. It is important to understand how the Bank of England will proceed from here. Hints of further rate cuts will put pressure on the pound. However, if policymakers are cautious, it may temporarily strengthen the British currency.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 1.2870, 1.2848, 1.2733, 1.2642
- Resistance levels: 1.2919, 1.2950, 1.2982, 1.3023
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro, but the pound is showing more resilience ahead of the Bank of England meeting. Currently, the price is testing liquidity above 1.2919. A hold below 1.2919 will open up selling opportunities. If the price consolidates above 1.2919, the price will likely be correct to 1.2982.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.3044 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.11.07
- UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
- UK BoE Rate Statement at 14:00 (GMT+2);
- UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (m/m) at 17:15 (GMT+2).
The USD/JPY currency pair
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 151.56
- Prev. Close: 154.62
- % chg. over the last day: +2.01 %
On Wednesday, the yen fell by almost 2% under the pressure of a sharp rise in the dollar after the convincing victory of Republican Donald Trump in the US presidential election. The Japanese yen is trading near a three-month low, raising concerns about possible intervention by Japanese authorities. Japan’s top currency diplomat expressed heightened vigilance, saying he was “closely monitoring currency movements” and “ready to take appropriate measures” if excessive fluctuations occur. Meanwhile, new data showed real wages in Japan fell by 0.1% in September as consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9%, outpacing nominal wage growth of 2.8%. The data complicates the Bank of Japan’s outlook for further interest rate hikes, which is already clouded by political uncertainty in the country.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 152.65, 151.65
- Resistance levels: 153.90, 154.31, 155.20
From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The Japanese yen has reached the resistance level of 153.90 and is testing liquidity higher. If the price impulsively consolidates below the level, we can look for sell trades with the target of 152.65. If buyers take the initiative from 153.90, intraday buying can be sought with a target of 155.20.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks down the support level of 151.64, the downtrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.11.07
There is no news feed for today.
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
Technical indicators of the currency pair:
- Prev. Open: 2742
- Prev. Close: 2659
- % chg. over the last day: -3.12 %
Trump’s presidency has also caused traders to roll over safe-haven gold positions as markets expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, making gold less attractive. This came against the backdrop of the newly elected US president’s earlier campaign policies on immigration, higher tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation, fueling expectations of higher deficits and inflation. Meanwhile, attention now turns to the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy announcement later today, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected. Much will depend on Jerome Powell’s press conference. For the dollar to come under selling pressure, Fed policymakers must express concern about the state of the US economy and make it clear that aggressive easing is needed in the coming months.
Trading recommendations
- Support levels: 2634, 2604
- Resistance levels: 2670, 2708, 2733, 2749
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bearish. The price seeks to test liquidity below 2634, so another wave of decline is very likely. The resistance level of 2670 can be considered for selling. Buying can be considered from 2634, provided a bullish initiative to the area below. A price consolidation above 2670 will open the price to a deeper correction.
Alternative scenario:if the price breaks above the resistance level of 2750, the uptrend will likely resume.
News feed for: 2024.11.07
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
