The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2024.11.21

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.0592
• Prev. Close: 1.0543
• % chg. over the last day: -0.46 %

In its annual Financial Stability Review, the ECB emphasized that heightened geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty increase sovereign vulnerabilities while rising global trade tensions increase the likelihood of adverse economic shocks. On the other hand, Eurozone wages rose 5.4% y/y in the third quarter, the highest since the introduction of the euro, complicating the ECB’s plans to cut interest rates. Nevertheless, the Central Bank is expected to make a fourth 25bp rate cut in December.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0514, 1.0483
• Resistance levels: 1.0568, 1.0568, 1.0607, 1.0654, 1.0714, 1.0766, 1.0795, 1.0857

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Falling volumes indicate a decline in interest, which leads to the formation of a flat accumulation. Yesterday, the price retested the resistance level of 1.0607, where sellers reacted again. The price has declined to the lower boundary of the accumulation, and there is no buyers’ reaction here. Selling can be considered from 1.0568, subject to sellers’ reaction. A breakdown and consolidation below 1.0154 will open the price to 1.0483.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.0654 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 1.2676
• Prev. Close: 1.2650
• % chg. over the last day: -0.21 %

The UK annual inflation rose to 2.3% in October, the highest in six months, up from 1.7% in September, exceeding the Bank of England’s target and market expectations of 2.2%. Services inflation, which the Central Bank sees as a key indicator of domestic price pressures, rose to 5% from 4.9%. Markets now believe there is only a 14% chance of a further quarter-point rate cut this year and only two cuts in 2025.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2601
• Resistance levels: 1.2697, 1.2726, 1.2766, 1.2878, 1.2905, 1.2982, 1.3023

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Currently, the price is trading in the corridor and seeks to test the liquidity below the lower boundary. If the sellers show a reaction here, the price may drop sharply to 1.2602. If buyers show a reaction to the lower flat boundary, intraday buying could be sought, but with short targets, as there are no triggers for volatility growth.

Alternative scenario:

 if the price breaks the resistance level at 1.2769 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 154.64
• Prev. Close: 155.41
• % chg. over the last day: +0.50 %

Recent verbal warnings from the Japanese authorities have been less effective in curbing market concerns, and traders see the 160 level as a potential trigger for further government intervention. Investors are now awaiting Japan’s October inflation data, due on Friday, to help shape the economic outlook. Meanwhile, the yen remains under pressure from the US dollar, helped by expectations that Trump’s policies could lead to higher inflation and limit future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 155.05, 154.57, 153.91, 153.70, 153.29, 153.03
• Resistance levels: 155.87, 156.32

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price yesterday tested the liquidity above 155.80, where sellers reacted. Currently, there are 2 liquidity areas in front of the price, each of which can act as a support area. For buying, we should consider 155.05 or 154.57, provided the buyers react. For selling, there are no optimal entry points now.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks down the support level of 153.91, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev. Open: 2632
• Prev. Close: 2650
• % chg. over the last day: +0.57 %

Gold recovered from early losses and climbed above the $2,650 per ounce mark on Wednesday amid a flight to safety following further escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine fired British-made missiles into Russian territory following a strike yesterday using US-made long-range missiles. This came just a day after Russia changed its nuclear doctrine.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 2618, 2606, 2580, 2559, 2471
• Resistance levels: 2675, 2700, 2708, 2733, 2749

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to a bullish one. Currently, the price is aiming to test liquidity above 2675. Considering the MACD divergence, sellers may take the initiative here, which will open up selling opportunities. There are no optimal entry points for buying in the current time frame. Intraday, you can look for buying from the moving averages.

Alternative scenario:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level 2559, the downtrend will likely resume.