The current week is expected to be quieter than the previous one, as there will be little important economic news on key economies. The main event will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting, where there is a high probability of a 0.25% rate hike. Investors will also closely analyze Friday’s UK GDP data, where there may be surprises in the form of negative values for the 3rd quarter. US Fed Chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Wednesday and Thursday this week at various events in Washington, DC. Any speech by Powell is fraught with increased market volatility, especially recently when rate decisions are becoming more and more essential. Traders should also pay attention to China’s inflation data, as well as New Zealand’s inflation expectations report. These data could affect Asian stock markets as well as global risk sentiment.
Monday, November 06
On Monday, traders’ attention will be focused on the minutes of the latest Bank of Japan meeting, as well as speeches by BoJ Governor Ueda. Recently, rumors that the Japanese central bank is preparing for a shift to a tighter monetary policy have resurfaced.
Main events of the day:
- Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan BOJ Gov Ueda Speaks at 06:10 (GMT+2);
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, November 07
The main event on Tuesday will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting. Last week, major Australian banks, including ANZ, ING, and Macquarie, raised interest rates on home loans in anticipation of an increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analysts forecast that the RBA will raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.35% as the latest inflation data gave an unpleasant surprise in the form of rising prices. In the second half of the day, traders should pay attention to the US and Canada trade balance data.
Main events of the day:
- China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+2);
- Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 05:30 (GMT+2);
- Australia RBA Rate Statement at 05:30 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
- German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 04:30 (GMT+2);
- US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, November 08
On Wednesday, investors’ attention will be directed to inflation expectations in New Zealand. If forecasts point to a jump in inflation in the coming months, it will increase the likelihood of a rate hike from the RBNZ. In the second half of the day, traders should focus on the speech of US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as crude oil inventories data, which have a significant impact on oil prices.
Main events of the day:
- New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+2);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).
Thursday, November 09
China will release inflation data on Thursday. China has been suffering from deflation (negative inflation) in recent quarters, so investors are waiting for Beijing to take more active measures to stimulate the economy. The Australian currency is sensitive to news from China due to the close trade relations between the two countries. Traders will also be watching closely for a speech from the heads of the ECB and US Fed.
Main events of the day:
- China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
- China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).
Friday, November 10
On Friday, the RBA meeting minutes will be released in the Asian session, which will increase volatility on currency pairs with the Australian dollar. At the European session, a number of economic data on the UK will be published, the main of which is the GDP data for the 3rd quarter. The opinion of analysts is pided. Some believe that the economy will show a lack of growth, and some – a contraction. In any case, the news may become negative for the British currency.
Main events of the day:
- Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);;
- UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
