The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday, where the official monetary rate is expected to be kept at 5.5%. The OPEC+ group surprised the market last Wednesday by postponing its scheduled November 26 meeting until November 30 after producers failed to reach a consensus on production levels. This increased interest in the current OPEC+ meeting, where oil production cuts will be discussed. Thursday’s US PCE inflation report is likely to bolster the case for the Federal Reserve to stop raising rates. Also, this week, inflation data will be released in the Eurozone, which is expected to indicate that price pressures eased again in November. However, despite signs of slowing inflation, the minutes of the ECB’s most recent meeting last Thursday showed that officials believe they should be prepared to raise rates again if necessary. There will also be many speeches this week by central bank officials that are worth watching closely.
Monday, November 27
Usually, Monday is an ordinary trading day with low volatility, but this week may start very actively after the holidays in the United States. Monday’s main events will be speeches by central bank officials.
Main events of the day:
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
- US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, November 28
The main event on Tuesday will be the Australian retail sales data. At its last meeting, the RBA raised the interest rate by 0.25% after a long pause and strong retail sales data may support the RBA’s hawkishness. Among the other events, it is worth paying attention to the speeches of central bank officials.
Main events of the day:
- Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan BoJ Core CPI (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
- US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 17:45 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 20:05 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, November 29
A lot of important news is expected on Wednesday. The main event will be the RBNZ meeting, where policymakers are expected to keep the interest rate at 5.5%. Although inflation in New Zealand remains one of the highest among developed economies, the tightening of monetary policy is contributing to the slowdown in the economy. Investor interest should also be focused on inflation data from Australia and Germany. In Australia, inflationary pressures are expected to fall from 5.6% to 5.2% year-on-year, while in the key EU economy, Germany, consumer prices are expected to fall from 3.8% to 3.5% year-on-year. Wednesday will also see the release of preliminary US GDP data for the quarter. Strong data is expected here, which may give support to the US currency.
Main events of the day:
- Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 (GMT+2);
- RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 (GMT+2);
- RBNZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
- US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+2).
Thursday, November 30
Thursday will bring various statistics for many countries. The main event will be the OPEC+ meeting. The postponement of the meeting from November 26 to November 30 provoked rumors that disagreements are growing within the alliance over the need for additional production cuts. Therefore, any surprises in the form of further price cuts could lead to a resumption of the oil rally. Traders should also pay attention to the PCE Price Index, which for the Fed is a more important indicator of inflation than the consumer price index. The decline in the index is likely to increase the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve has ended its tightening cycle and has taken a position of holding rates until late spring 2024. Also, on Thursday, inflation data will be released in the Eurozone. Core inflation is expected to continue to decline. However, despite signs of slowing inflation, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned that borrowing costs should remain restrictive for a long time to come. China will release its official supply managers’ indices for November on Thursday, and investors will be watching for any signs of recovery in the world’s second-largest economy.
Main events of the day:
- Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
- China NonManufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
- German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
- German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- OPEC+ meeting at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:05 (GMT+2);
- US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, December 01
On Friday, data on business activity in the manufacturing sector will be released for many countries. This data shows the health of the economy. So far, all countries are in contraction territory (below 50), but there is a tendency to recover. Any surprise in the form of faster growth in the sector could support the national currency. The end of the trading week will dilute Jerome Powell’s speech, which may affect the quotations of the dollar and US indices.
Main events of the day:
- Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
- Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+2).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
