The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday, where the official money rate is expected to be cut by 0.5%. The shortened holiday week in the US will center on FOMC meeting minutes, PCE inflation data, personal income and spending, and the second estimate of third-quarter US GDP. Investors will also get an update on the health of the US consumer and retail sector this week as Black Friday marks the start of the holiday shopping season. In addition, Eurozone inflation data will be released this week, which is expected to show that price pressures will slightly intensify in November.
Monday, November 25
Usually, Monday is an ordinary trading day with low volatility. Still, this week may start very actively as the end of the week will be under low volatility due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US and Black Friday. On Monday, it’s worth paying attention to Singapore’s inflation data, where inflation is expected to fall from 2.0% to 1.7% y/y. As a rule, a decrease in inflationary pressure has a negative impact on the national currency. Also, on Monday, Germany will publish data on business activity. Weak data may put additional pressure on the euro.
Main events of the day:
- Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland Unemployment Level (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- New Zealand Retail Sales (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, November 26
Key economic data will be released in the US session on Tuesday. The US CB consumer confidence report is often worth paying attention to. The index’s expected growth may provide additional fuel for the dollar’s growth.
Main events of the day:
- US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
- US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, November 27
Due to Thursday being a bank holiday in the US (Thanksgiving Day), all of Thursday’s events have been moved to Wednesday, so it will be very busy. Australia’s inflation report will be released in the Asian session. It is expected to rise from 2.1% to 2.5% YoY, pushing back the start of rate cuts from the RBA to next year. This is a positive factor for AUD. Next, the central bank will hold a monetary policy meeting in New Zealand, where a 0.5% rate cut is expected. This is a negative factor for the NZD. Next in the US will be PCE inflation reports (the US Fed’s favorite inflation indicator), Q3 GDP data, weekly labor market data, and durable goods orders data. Strong volatility is expected on USD pairs and US indices. Strong data is expected, which may support the US dollar.
Next, reports on crude oil and natural gas inventories will be released, which strongly influences the pricing of these commodities. Oil prices (WTI) rose 5% last week, while natural gas prices (XNG) hit a one-year high. Toward the end of the US session, traders will expect a bonus in the form of the publication of the last FOMC minutes. Pricing in the Fed funds futures market is consistent with just under a 60% probability of a quarter-point rate cut on December 18, down from about 80% in the pre-election period. The FOMC meeting minutes will be useful in assessing where the bar is in the data-dependent mode.
Main events of the day:
- Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 (GMT+2);
- New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 (GMT+2);
- RBNZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
- German GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+2);
- US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).
Thursday, November 28
Weak volatility is expected on Thursday. Among the important events, it is worth highlighting only the data on inflation in Germany. The decrease in inflationary pressure will contribute to the weakening of the euro. It’s a bank holiday in the United States.
Main events of the day:
- Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speaks at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2).
Friday, November 29
Friday is Black Friday. The financial market in the US will have an early closing, so volatility should be expected only in the Asian and European sessions. The Asian session will include reports from Japan on retail sales and labor market. At the European session in the Eurozone inflation report will be published. The core rate is expected to rise from 2.0% to 2.3% y/y, which may temporarily support the euro.
Main events of the day:
- Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
- German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
- German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
