This week, we will focus on the November Non-Farm Payroll report in the United States. Market attention will also be focused on JOLT data on vacancies, ISM manufacturing, and services PMI indices. Elsewhere, unemployment rates in the Eurozone and Canada will be released, and joblessness data and Q3 GDP growth in Australia will be released. In addition, PMI reports for manufacturing and services are expected for a number of key economies. The OPEC+ meeting will also receive close attention.
Monday, December 02
On Monday, the investor should focus on manufacturing PMI data for key economies. This indicator shows how the industry sector is feeling. As a rule, the growth of values is positive for the national currency because the better the economy feels, the lower the probability of central bank rate cuts.
Main events of the day:
- Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
- US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, December 03
On Tuesday, investors should focus on Swiss inflation data. On an annualized basis, consumer prices are expected to rise at 0.7%, slightly above the current 0.6%. This will not affect the medium-term trends but increase volatility on CHF instruments. Investors should also carefully analyze the JOLTS Job Openings report, which will bring additional volatility to currency pairs with the US dollar. The number of vacancies is expected to increase, which would indicate the labor market’s strength and could boost the dollar index.
Main events of the day:
- Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
- US JOLTS Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, December 04
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to take part in a panel at the New York Times DealBook Summit on Wednesday, and investors will be watching closely for any comments on the strength of the labor market and inflation outlook, as well as how far the Fed might cut interest rates at its upcoming December meeting. Also, several service sector PMI data are expected to be released on Wednesday. By analogy, this index shows the health of the service sector. The growth of indicators is usually positive for the national currency. Investors should also pay attention to Australia’s Q3 GDP data. It is expected to grow by 0.9%, slightly lower than the previous 1.0%. If the data comes out worse than expected, it could hurt the Aussie dollar.
Main events of the day:
- Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
- Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+2);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
- US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- US Factory Orders (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+2).
Thursday, December 05
The OPEC+ group will hold its meeting on Friday. OPEC+ is expected to decide to extend production cuts further. Last month, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 amid economic weakness in China, a major importer, India, and other regions. It is also important to consider the trade balance data in Australia, Canada, and the United States. Switzerland will publish a labor market report. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 2.6% to 2.7%, but this is unlikely to significantly impact the CHF.
Main events of the day:
- Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
- Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
- UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- OPEC+ meeting at 13:00 (GMT+2);
- US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, December 06
Friday’s main event will be the monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report. Economists expect the economy to add 202,000 jobs in November after disruptions from strikes and hurricanes, which led to a weak October report (12,000 jobs). A strong labor market report allowed the US Fed to be more hawkish at the December meeting, which was positive for the US dollar. Investors should also pay attention to the Eurozone GDP data. The latest economic indicators indicate a slowdown in the region’s economy, so weak data could hurt the euro.
Main events of the day:
- German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
- Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
- Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
