The ECB and Fed will cut rates sooner than the BoE. Deflationary processes are intensifying in China

US nonfarm payroll employment for November rose by 199,000, exceeding expectations of 185,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 to a 4-month low of 3.7% in November, indicating a stronger labor market. Average hourly earnings in the US for November were up by 4.0% y/y, unchanged from October and in line with expectations. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December rose by 8.1 to a 4-month high of 69.4, exceeding expectations of 62.0. Inflation expectations for 5-10-year inflation also declined in December to 2.8% from 3.2% in November, better than expectations of 3.1%.

Ahead of the December European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, there is growing evidence that the Governing Council is divided on what to present to the markets. Typically hawkish Isabel Schnabel made strong dovish hints by ruling out a rate hike this week, and markets are now pricing in a 135 bps rate cut over the next 12 months. A reassessment of inflation expectations has played a leading role in lowering rates and raising expectations for the first rate cut late in the first quarter of next year.

No rate changes are expected at Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting, but the Bank of England will counter the rising tide of rate cut expectations. Bank Governor Bailey recently indicated his stance on more rate hikes in an attempt to curb speculation of an imminent rate cut. Markets are predicting three rate cuts in 2024 from the BoE, but the first rate cut won’t come until June 2024 at the earliest, while the ECB and the US Fed could cut rates as early as March-April 2024.

Oil rose on Friday after better-than-expected US economic reports on November payrolls and December consumer sentiment eased recession fears and bolstered prospects for a soft landing, a positive for energy demand and oil prices. In addition, the US plans to replenish the strategic oil reserve by supporting oil. The US Department of Energy released a request to purchase up to 3 million barrels of oil with delivery in March to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This was in addition to a previous tender to buy the same volume in February. The Energy Ministry said it will hold monthly tenders to buy oil to replenish the reserve until at least May next year.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 3.03% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 3.06% for the five trading days, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 3.46% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.72% for the week.

Japan’s Q3 GDP data was unexpectedly revised downward to 2.9% y/y from 2.1% y/y, weaker than expectations of 2.0% and the sharpest rate of contraction since the pandemic. The Q3 GDP deflator was revised upward to a record 5.3% y/y from 5.1% y/y.

China’s consumer price index fell by 0.5% in November from the previous month. The index was weaker than expectations of a 0.1% drop and also worsened from October’s 0.1% decline. On an annualized basis, CPI inflation fell by 0.5%, the lowest reading in 3 years. The data contradicts a recent statement from the head of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), who said inflation would go up. The decline in inflation came despite continued liquidity injections from the government and signaled that Beijing needs to do more to support economic activity.