Investors will be watching the US Producer and Consumer Price Index data this week for signs that price pressures are finally easing after months of solid inflation that raised fears that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates this year. The Eurozone will release GDP data on Wednesday and April’s inflation data on Friday. Economists expect a slight increase in economic activity, while no change is expected in inflation. On Friday, China will release financial data showing how the world's number two economy fared at the start of the second quarter. Also worth watching on Tuesday is the UK labor market data, where investors will be watching closely for signs that wage growth is fueling price pressures.
Monday, May 13
There are no events on Monday that would significantly affect volatility. Investors will watch for updated inflation expectations in New Zealand, which could affect the RBNZ's sentiment. It is also worth paying attention to the speech of the FOMC representatives.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, May 14
Various statistics for many countries are expected on Tuesday. In the UK, the labor market report will be released. The traders' main focus will be on wage data. The growth of this indicator will contribute to strengthening inflationary pressure, which hypothetically may postpone the Bank of England's rate cut until the end of the year. Investors should also consider the German consumer inflation report and the US producer inflation data. In both cases, growth is expected.
Main events of the day:
- – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 15
Wednesday's main event will be the Consumer Price Index data in the United States. Suppose the data shows that the latest consumer price trend was temporary and inflation continues to fall. In that case, it will increase the likelihood that the Fed will begin cutting rates this summer, which could negatively impact Treasury yields and the US dollar. Investors should also pay attention to Eurozon's GDP data. Economists expect to see a slight increase in economic activity. It's a bank holiday in Hong Kong.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 22:20 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 16
The main Thursday event will be the first quarter's Japanese GDP report. The revised report shows a rosier picture of growth, which could increase the likelihood of another rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Traders should also carefully study the data on the labor market in Australia. Further acceleration in wage growth and a strong recovery in employment could increase the likelihood of a September rate hike from the RBA. Other events of the day will be less critical.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 18:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 22:50 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 17
On Friday, the world's second-largest economy will release data on industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment for April. If data adds to perceptions of a slow start to the second quarter, concerns about the stability of the economic recovery could re-emerge. Also, on Friday, the Eurozone will release its inflation report. No change is expected, but there could be surprises in either direction. Volatility on currency pairs with the euro will be increased.
Main events of the day:
- – New Producer Price Index (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2024.05.13
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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