On Wednesday, the Fed is scheduled to release the minutes of its May 1 meeting, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said rates are likely to remain on hold for a long time amid persistent inflationary pressures. The US, China, the Eurozone, and the UK will release PMI data for May, which should bolster optimism about the global economy. Investors should also closely monitor the New Zealand Reserve Bank meeting as the RBNZ is not yet finished with monetary policy tightening. The UK will release April Consumer Price Index data on Wednesday. Economists expect the annual rate of inflation to have slowed sharply. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak during the week, which could provide clues as to the US Fed's plans for the summer.
Monday, May 20
On Monday, traders should focus on Asian indices as China will release influential data. The US session should focus on the FOMC officials' speech. It's a bank holiday in Canada, Switzerland, France and Germany.
Main events of the day:
- – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Jefferson Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, May 21
Canada will release inflation data on Tuesday. However, no significant changes in the indicators are expected. Also, during the day, officials from the ECB, the Bank of England, and the US Federal Reserve will speak. As a rule, the speeches do not bring a sharp change in volatility but affect the medium-term trends because the probabilities of rate cuts are re-evaluated after the comments.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Trade Balance at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:05 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 16:10 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Barr Speaks at 18:45 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 22
On Wednesday, investors will focus on the FOMC minutes and the New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive meeting amid persistent inflation and a slowing economy. However, volatility in pairs with the New Zealand dollar could spike. As for the FOMC minutes, all analysts will examine the report for clues on when the US Federal Reserve plans to begin its rate-cutting campaign. If it clarifies that it's worth keeping rates at the same level until the fall, it could bring some confidence to the US dollar. The UK inflation data should also be on the sheet for traders. Core inflation is expected to fall to 3.6% y/y from 4.2% y/y, while the overall rate is expected to fall to 2.3% y/y. This will be a victory over inflation, but for the GBP, it will be a negative scenario, bringing it closer to the first-rate cut from the Bank of England.
Main events of the day:
- – US FOMC Member Collins Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Trade Balance at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 23:10 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 23
Thursday will bring various Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI statistics for many countries. This data will show how the economy works during high interest rates. Eurozone countries are expected to show a slow recovery for the first time in 6 months, and China is expected to show strong growth. Investors should also closely examine the Singapore and Hong Kong inflation data. A slight decrease in the figures is expected.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3).
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Hong Kong Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 24
The most important Friday release is Japan's inflation report. Analysts expect inflation to fall from 2.7% to 2.3% y/y. Such figures may encourage the Bank of Japan to consider another rate hike, which could give confidence to the Japanese currency. Traders should also pay attention to UK and Canadian retail sales data. As a rule, the growth of indicators is accompanied by the strengthening of the national currency.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3).
- – Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 10:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
by , 2024.05.20
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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