This week promises to be less volatile. The main focus of investors will be on inflation data. In the US, the PCE Price Index report will be released, which FOMC policymakers consider more accurate than CPI. A slight increase is expected, but the markets are already priced in the fact that the US Fed will postpone the first rate cut to the fall, so this data may not have much impact on volatility. The Eurozone and Australia will also publish inflation reports. Inflationary pressures are expected to continue to decline in Australia, while in the Eurozone, they are expected to remain unchanged. Tokyo's inflation data, released on Friday, will be closely watched as markets try to determine when the Bank of Japan might raise rates next.
Monday, May 27
No major news is expected on Monday. At the European session, the main report will be the data on the German business climate from the Ifo Institute. A slight increase in the index is expected. The rest of the day will be weakly volatile as the UK and US have a bank holiday.
Main events of the day:
- – German Ifo Business Climate Index (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, May 28
Tuesday's main event will be Australia's retail sales report. The growth of the indicator generally positively affects the currency. Also, on Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the report on consumer confidence in the United States. It is expected to decline, which may negatively impact the US dollar.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 07:55 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 07:55 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland SNB Board Jordan Speaks at 07:55 (GMT+3);
- – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 29
On Wednesday, Australia will publish inflation data. Analysts forecast a slight decrease in inflationary pressures. However, volatility in currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Germany will also publish their inflation data. Recent trends pointed to rising inflationary pressures in the country. Therefore, rising inflation will increase the likelihood that the ECB will not be in a hurry to cut rates after the June meeting.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – German GfK Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 30
Thursday will be full of economic news. The main report will be the preliminary data on US GDP, which is expected to show 1.3% growth for the quarter, down from 1.6% in the previous month. This may be negative for the US dollar. Eurozone unemployment data should also not be missed. But here, it will be unchanged. Also, on Thursday, data on crude oil and natural gas reserves will be published, increasing volatility on these instruments.
Main events of the day:
- – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:05 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 31
The most essential Friday release is the US PCE Price Index. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. The data is expected to show a 0.2% month-on-month increase. However, as markets have already priced at a late rate hike, the dollar may not get support from the data. Traders should also not miss the Eurozone inflation report. Economists expect Eurozone inflation to rise by 2.5% y/y in May, up from 2.4% in April, with core inflation remaining at 2.7%. Also, on Friday, China will publish official PMIs for manufacturing and non-manufacturing. Economists expect the business activity index in the manufacturing sector to remain just above the 50 mark in May. Beijing has set an ambitious economic growth target of around 5% this year, which many analysts believe will be difficult to achieve.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – China non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- – New Zealand Annual Budget Release at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Core PCE Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).
by , 2024.05.27
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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