This week, investors will focus on inflation data from the UK, Eurozone and Japan, as well as the Bank of England (BoE), Swiss National Bank (SNB), Norges Bank(NB), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and People's Bank of China (PBoC) meetings. None of the banks are expected to change interest rates this week. A day before the Bank of England meeting, inflation data for May will be published in the UK. The consumer price index is expected to fall to the target level of 2% for the first time in almost three years. In Japan, consumer inflation is forecast to rise, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at the next meeting. The speeches of the FOMC officials are also worth paying attention to. A hawkish bias by politicians could trigger a sell-off in stock indices and give a new boost to the US dollar.
Monday, June 17
Monday will be a relatively calm and non-volatile day. No significant news is expected in the European and American sessions. It's a bank holiday in China, Hong Kong, and Australia.
Main events of the day:
- – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
- – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Harker Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, June 18
The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet on Tuesday. The RBA is expected to leave the rate unchanged. Stagnant inflation has so far prevented the RBA from starting a rate-cut cycle. The RBA could continue the tightening cycle if not for weak GDP growth. Also, traders should pay attention to the Eurozone inflation data. No changes are expected, but any surprise in the direction of consumer price growth may cause the euro to rise against the background that the ECB will return to keeping rates. Investors will also be closely watching retail sales data for May. Economists expect retail sales to have increased by 0.3%. Consumer spending is the focus of Wall Street's attention as investors try to gauge the impact of higher interest rates on the economy.
Main events of the day:
- – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Rate Statement at 07:30 (GMT+3);
- – Australia RBA Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+3);
- – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, June 19
Wednesday's main event will be the inflation data in the United Kingdom. Analysts expect inflationary pressures to decrease both CPI and PPI. This could sharply increase the probability of a rate cut in August from the Bank of England, which is negative for the British currency, but positive for the UK index. It’s a bank holiday in the United States.
Main events of the day:
- – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
Thursday, June 20
On Thursday, there will be 4 central bank monetary policy meetings – the Bank of England (BoE), Swiss National Bank (SNB), Norges Bank (NB) and People Bank of China (PBoC). All rates and policy settings are projected to remain unchanged at all the mentioned banks. But traders can expect a spike in volatility. Due to Wednesday's holiday, the crude oil inventories report will be released on Thursday. Brent crude and the US benchmark WTI rose nearly 4% last week. A supply shortage with high demand is forecast to support oil prices until early winter. The New Zealand GDP report, published once a quarter, will also be important. It is expected to grow by a modest 0.1%, but if the data is worse than expected, the NZD will be under pressure.
Main events of the day:
- – New Zealand QDP (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
- – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
- – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Norway NB Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).
Friday, June 21
Friday's most important release for investors will be Japan's inflation rate data. Consumer prices are expected to increase from 2.2% to 2.6% year-on-year. Rising inflation will increase the probability of another rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which finally exited negative interest rate territory this year. For the Yen, this will be a factor for appreciation. Also, on Friday, there will be a lot of different statistics on the manufacturing and service PMI for different countries. Evaluating these indicators is very simple – if the PMI falls below 50, it is a sign that the sector is slowing down. If it is above 50, it indicates that the sector is in good shape.
Main events of the day:
- It’s a bank holiday in China and Hong Kong.
- – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
- – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
- – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- – Hong Kong Inflation Rate (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Bullard Speaks at 13:30 (GMT+3);
- – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Williams Speaks at 18:45 (GMT+3).
- – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
- – Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- – Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
- – US FOMC Bowman Speaks at 16:55 (GMT+3);
- – US Fed Chair Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- – US FOMC Mester Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
by , 2024.06.17
We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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