Week's main events (June 24

There will be several important events in the coming week. The main event will be the inflation data in Canada and Australia. Inflationary pressures are expected to fall in both, but there may be surprises. Also, the US, Canada, and UK GDP data will be released this week. This data will show how the economy works during high interest rates. Typically, GDP growth is accompanied by a stronger currency, as a strong economy allows the central bank to hold rates further to fight inflation. The Fed's favorite measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will be released on Friday and should show whether the emerging slowdown in inflation continues. The latest PCE reading was not in line with expectations. Another such reading could undermine the case for a rate cut soon.

Monday, June 24

On Monday, investors will focus on Germany's Business Climate from Ifo. This data is based on approx. 9,000 monthly responses from businesses in manufacturing, the service sector, trade, and construction. Also, traders should not miss the Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speech.

Main events of the day:

– New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
– German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Daly at 21:00 (GMT+3).

Tuesday, June 25

Canada will release its inflation report on Tuesday. In annualized terms, the inflation rate is expected to decline from 2.7% to 2.6%. However, the Bank of Canada likes to focus on median figures. Also, the market participants will follow the US CB confidence report. Consumer confidence is expected to decline, which could negatively affect the US dollar.

Main events of the day:

– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Cook Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Bowman Speaks at 21:10 (GMT+3).

Wednesday, June 26

On Wednesday, traders should focus on Australia's consumer inflation data. Inflation is expected to decline from 3.6% to 3.5% annually. For the RBA, this is not enough to start lowering rates. Therefore, the Australian dollar may even become a factor in its strengthening. Also not to be missed is the weekly crude oil inventories report. Given the limited supply and growing geopolitical risks, lower inventories may significantly support the price of black gold.

Main events of the day:

– Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– German GfK Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Thursday, June 27

Thursday, we will see the release of the US monthly GDP data. The US economy is expected to grow by 1.4%. Traders should also pay attention to Japan's retail sales report. It is expected to see a rise 2.0% y/y. It’s a bank holiday in New Zealand.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Financial Stability Report at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 12:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

Friday, June 28

Friday will bring various statistics for many countries. The most essential Friday's release is May's Personal Consumption Price Index data - the US Federal Reserve's favorite measure of inflation. The report is expected to show lower prices, but there could be surprises. Also, traders should watch Tokyo inflation data and the UK GDP report on Friday. The Tokyo inflation report is a precursor to overall inflation for the country, and the Bank of Japan is keen to see this figure rise. As for the UK, economists forecast a modest 0.6% quarter-on-quarter increase. But it will be positive for the British currency.

Main events of the day:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland KOF Economic Barometer (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2024.06.24

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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Week's main events (June 24 – June 28)

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