The week’s main event will be the US inflation data on Wednesday. Inflation is expected to continue to decline and fall to 2.6% in annualized terms. This will increase the probability that the US Fed may cut the rate by 0.5% in September to reduce the economic impact. On Tuesday, the UK labor market data will be released, and a weak report may increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England at the next meeting. On Thursday, the ECB will make its interest rate decision. Economists and money markets agree that the ECB will cut the rate by 0.25%. Also worth keeping an eye on this week is inflation and trade balance data from China.
Isnin, September 09
Not much news is expected on Monday. The main event will be in the Asian session. The trader’s attention should be on the inflation data in China. This data will have a strong impact on the Asian indices.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3).
Selasa, September 10
On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the UK labor market data. This month, these reports will influence the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. A weak labor market amid falling inflation will increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England. This will be a negative scenario for the pound. Also, on Tuesday, there will be an inflation report for Germany. Inflation is expected to fall from 2.3% to 1.9% annually.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
- German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Canada BoC Macklem Speech (m/m) at 15:10 (GMT+3).
Rabu, September 11
The main event on Wednesday will be the US consumer inflation data. Experts see signs of falling inflationary pressures and expect the figures to decline from 2.9% to 2.6% year-on-year. This will increase the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut at next week’s US Fed meeting. Also, on Wednesday, it is worth noting that the UK GDP data is expected to show slow growth. Investors should also focus on the US crude oil reserves, which significantly impact oil prices. Oil prices are now under pressure from weak demand and seasonality, so lower inventories could support prices.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Khamis, September 12
The European Central Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday. It is almost 100% likely that the ECB will cut the rate by 0.25%. Therefore, investors will focus on Lagarde’s speech at the press conference. If Lagarde hints at further rate cuts, the euro may come under pressure. Data dependence, on the contrary, may support the euro. US producer inflation data should also not be missed as it is a leading indicator of consumer inflation.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Jumaat, September 13
Friday will be a relatively quiet day. No major events are expected, but volatility with US dollar pairs may jump on Michigan consumer sentiment data.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
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