This week’s main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States. The report will show how quickly the central bank will have to cut rates in the coming months. Economists expect the economy to have added 144,000 jobs last month, a little more than 142,000 in August. A strong report will reduce the likelihood of a faster rate cut, which could positively impact the dollar. On Tuesday, the Eurozone will release inflation data.
Further downward pressure is expected, which may put pressure on the euro. OPEC+ countries will meet on Wednesday. There could be surprises, so oil traders should be on guard. Also, several Fed and ECB policymakers are scheduled to speak this week, including Fed Chief Jerome Powell and ECB President Сhristine Lagarde. There will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing and services PMI data, which will indicate global economic trends in key economies.
Isnin, September 30
Several FOMC officials, including US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, will participate in a roundtable discussion with business representatives on Monday. In a Friday’s note, Deutsche Bank analysts said they expect Powell’s comments to largely echo his remarks at the FOMC press conference. It’s a bank holiday in Canada and China.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
- UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
- German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 15:50 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
- US Fed Chair Powell Speaks (m/m) at 20:55 (GMT+3).
Selasa, October 01
The main event on Tuesday will be the inflation report in the Eurozone. The overall inflation rate is expected to fall from 2.8% to 2.7% y/y, while the core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to fall from 2.2% to 2.1% y/y. Lower inflation will reinforce the ECB’s dovish policy and force it to cut rates more aggressively to not traumatize the economy with high rates. Traders will also focus on manufacturing PMI data from various countries. The PMI index in European countries is expected to not show significant growth and will remain in contraction territory. It’s a bank holiday in China and Hong Kong.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
- Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
- Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
- German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Cook Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).
Rabu, October 02
On Wednesday, an important OPEC+ meeting will be held. There may be surprises on production quotas, so any hints of additional production increases may cause sharp fluctuations in oil prices. As a rule, production growth has a negative impact on black gold. And do not forget about crude oil inventories, published every Wednesday and show the increase/decrease in inventories compared to the previous week. This report influences short-term trends in the oil market. It’s a bank holiday in China.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks (m/m) at 01:15 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Collins Speaks (m/m) at 01:15 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- OPEC+ meeting at 13:00 (GMT+3);
- US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
- US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).
Khamis, October 03
Thursday’s main report will be Swiss inflation data. Last week, the SNB cut the rate by 0.25% in response to falling inflation and the strong franc, which hurt exporters. Inflationary pressures are expected to continue to ease (from 1.1% to 0.8% y/y). Such a report is likely to put pressure on the CHF. Also, on Thursday, data on the index of business activity in the services sector in key economies will be published. It’s a bank holiday in China.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
- Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
- Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
- German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
- UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
- US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (m/m) at 17:40 (GMT+3).
Jumaat, October 04
The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed also considers this indicator to adjust monetary policy. Economists expect the US economy to have added 144,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% and wage growth remaining strong. A strong jobs report will reduce the total rate cut points this year, which may temporarily support the US dollar. On the contrary, a weak report will indicate weakness in the labor market and increase the likelihood of a faster rate cut. It’s a bank holiday in China.
Peristiwa utama hari ini:
- Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
- UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
- US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3);
- Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
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