Bitcoin has reached the $64000 mark. Oil rises amid escalating conflict in the Middle East

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.09% (+2.52% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.19% (+1.56% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.36% (for the week +2.13%). Friday marked the quarterly expiration of futures and options. About $5.1 trillion worth of contracts expired on Friday, according to data from the Asym 500 analyst firm. The expiration also coincided with the rebalancing of benchmark indexes. The event has a reputation for sudden price movements as traders shift existing positions to new contracts.

FedEx (FDX) is falling more than 15% after the company reported Q1 adjusted EPS well below consensus and lowered its 2025 adjusted EPS estimate.

Canadian retail sales likely rose sharply in August after a solid July gain, signaling a strong rebound after two consecutive quarters of declining sales. The report sends a more optimistic signal about the strength of the Canadian economy than the latest gross domestic product data, which indicated growth stalled in June and July. The data may give Central Bank officials more confidence to curb inflation without plunging the economy into recession.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surpassed the $64,000 mark, hitting a one-month high and adding nearly 10% to its monthly gains. The moves came as the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points this month and announced plans for permanent policy easing. Traders now see the $70,000 mark as potential resistance for Bitcoin, as they did in late July.

Equity markets in Europe were steadily declining on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.49% (for the week +0.53%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.51% (for the week +0.92%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell 0.21% (for the week +2.02%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.19% (for the week -0.52%). European equities closed lower on Friday, reversing the previous session’s sharp gains as markets continued to assess the outlook for financial conditions this year following a series of Central Bank decisions this week. ECB Governing Council spokesman Rehn said on Friday that the ECB is clearly on track to ease monetary policy, with the pace and extent of easing dependent on fresh economic data and analysis.

WTI crude oil prices rose to $72 a barrel on Monday, extending their 3% gain from the previous week, boosted by the prospect of supply disruptions amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Hezbollah reportedly fired more than 100 rockets into northern Israel on Sunday. The attack followed an Israeli airstrike on Beirut on Friday that killed at least 45 people, including a top Hezbollah leader. However, concerns about Chinese demand remain, exacerbated by slowing production at refineries and weak industrial demand.
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Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.28%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.62%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 5.55%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 1.35%.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly came in at 1.9% for August 2024, compared to market estimates of 2.0%. This was the lowest rate since April. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative expenses, were 1.9% y/y, unchanged for the fifth month and maintaining the strongest growth since December 2023. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.1%, unchanged for the second consecutive month.

The Australian dollar edged above $0.68 on Monday, near its highest levels this year, as traders await the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision this week. The Central Bank is expected to leave rates unchanged on Tuesday amid strong labor market data and continued inflationary pressures. Markets don’t expect a rate cut until at least December, with some economists expecting the first move in February or even the second quarter of 2025.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly cut its 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points to 1.85% on September 23, 2024 from 1.95% previously. The Central Bank also injected 74.5 billion yuan of liquidity into the banking system. Monday’s measures came ahead of the National Day holiday, a seven-day break beginning October 1.